Arsenal may have qualified for the Europa League knockout phase with two games to spare, but there's still work to do in order to top Group A.
Last Thursday's 2-0 reverse at the hands of PSV Eindhoven denied the Gunners the chance to benefit from a major UEFA rule change where 'group winners progress automatically to the round of 16' and instead sets up what could be a nervy matchday six when they host FC Zurich at the Emirates Stadium.
The incentive for Arsenal to avoid finishing second is that they will skip a knockout play-off round tie against a third-placed Champions League team - such as Barcelona, Sevilla and potentially Atletico Madrid and Juventus - and two extra games in the new year.
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Now, the scenario for topping the group is straightforward for the Gunners as they just need a win. But anything less and they'll leave the door open for PSV to take full advantage should Ruud van Nistelrooy's side beat FK Bodo/Glimt in their final fixture on Thursday night.
Were PSV to secure a win in Norway and Zurich manage to spring a major surprise in north London by winning then it would be the Dutch side that secures qualification to the Europa League round of 16 stage at Arsenal's expense.
Furthermore, a PSV victory against Bodo/Glimt coupled with an Arsenal draw against Zurich would leave the two sides locked on 13 points. And as per UEFA's guidelines, teams that finish level on points in the Europa League group stage are sorted by their head-to-head record, with the following criteria:
- higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
- superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
- higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
- if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to k) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;
- superior goal difference in all group matches;
- higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
- higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
- higher number of wins in all group matches;
- higher number of away wins in all group matches;
- lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
- higher club coefficient
Because Arsenal and PSV both traded victories, the tie-breaker would be which team has the superior goal difference between them and as the Dutch side won their game 2-0 they would top the group leaving the Gunners to face the prospect of being paired with a Champions League transferee in the Europa League knockout round play-off round.
This would be somewhat of a disaster for Arsenal especially as Mikel Arteta has already outlined the importance of winning the group to aid their progress in the tournament: "Obviously, we knew the results and what was coming, and the competition is going to be at a level probably that it's never been at before," he said after the PSV loss. "This is the challenge for us."
"We never planned to have a day off in that [Zurich] fixture because we know how difficult it is to win in Europe. You just have to see the other groups and where everybody is. We're in a really good position – we've won four games, and we have to finalise the job against Zurich at home in a week's time, and we will prepare for that."
When is the Europa League knockout round play-off draw?
The 2022/23 UEFA Europa League knockout round play-off draw will take place at the House of European Football in Nyon, Switzerland on Monday, November 7 at 13:00 CET. Meanwhile, the draw for the round of 16 stage is on Friday, February 24 2023 at the same time.
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