We're right in the heart of the PGA Tour's Florida Swing and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge is sure to make pulses race until a winner is crowned on Sunday.
For the expert panel and their resident betting chief, it was another painfully close call last weekend as double-pick Shane Lowry let a three-stroke advantage slip inside the final trio of holes.
That marked the second runner-up finish in as many weeks for us, but instead of being downhearted by another near miss, we remain confident that our latest in a long line of winners is set to arrive very soon.
Coming off the back of two more top-10s at the Cognizant Classic, our expert panel have lined up another batch of likely winners from the extremely strong Signature Event field here at Bay Hill.
You can find each of them below and the reasons for our picks as well as Bazza's Best Bets for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational...
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips 2026 - Bazza's Best Bets
Top Tip: Tommy Fleetwood To Win @ BetMGM
I was on Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and was mightily impressed with his charge to finish T4th, so I am prepared to get back on board pretty quickly.
The profile of a winner at Bay Hill is a flusher who can play par-5s effectively and avoid the big numbers around this big boy golf course. Fleetwood ranks 2nd this season for Par-5 scoring, 3rd for scrambling and 10th for bogey avoidance, so ticks a lot of boxes for me.
He has also finished 3rd (and 10th twice) at Bay Hill, so knows what it takes to contend at the API, and has finished in the top-10 twice at TPC Sawgrass which correlates strongly with Bay Hill success.
Following a win at East Lake last season, which also correlates to this track, I am bullish on the chances of the Englishman considering he gained more than two strokes on the field with the flat stick on similarly fast greens at the Tour Championship.
Next Best: Matt Fitzpatrick To Win @ BetMGM
Another Englishman with a great record here is Matt Fitzpatrick, who is also having a sneakily good period with his golf at present.
Fitzpatrick has finished 9th, 14th and 24th in his last three PGA Tour events, but he also won the DP World Tour Championship at the back end of 2025 and banked four top-10s and one top-20 finishes in his last six PGA Tour events of the 2025 season.
His form here boasts a runner-up finish and three further top-10s, but his stats also match the profile of a potential champion.
Fitzpatrick ranks 16th for par-5 scoring, 2nd for good drive percentage and 4th for SG: Approach so far this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue a strong start to this season with a big push at Bay Hill.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Picks
Pick One: Shane Lowry To Win @ BetMGM
I like Shane Lowry at these odds. The Irishman threw away the Cognizant Classic and that will have been a very tough pill to swallow and a difficult one to get over. But don’t forget he’s a Major champion who holed the winning putt at a Ryder Cup, won a WGC and his national open while an amateur.
Being labeled as a ‘choker’ is not going to sit very well with him, and I’m sure he’ll have had plenty of good talks with his coaches, team and best friend Rory McIlroy before he tees off on Thursday.
Lowry was 7th here last year and 3rd in 2024 so it’s another course he tends to play well on, so I’m hoping he can bounce right back and continue his excellent golf.
Pick Two: Jacob Bridgeman To Win @ BetMGM
Bridgeman has been one of the best players in the world this year to gain strokes in all major categories barring around the greens, and he’s the No.1 putter on the PGA Tour after such an impressive win at the Genesis, where he held off Rory McIlroy in the final group.
The American is surprisingly high in the odds list despite brilliant form and a T15th finish at Bay Hill last year. I like his chances of striking while the iron’s hot and contending once again this week.
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Pick One: Collin Morikawa To Win @ BetMGM
Having already won in 2026, claiming victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Morikawa seems to be back in-form, especially as he followed that win up with a T7th at the Genesis Invitational.
His iron game is seriously strong and, with a putter he seems to like in his hands, perhaps this is the time he puts the demons to bed and claims the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament he should have won last year. Finishing runner-up in 2025, I feel he has the form to go one better in 2026.
Pick Two: Sepp Straka To Win @ BetMGM
For me, Straka provides quite high odds this week, especially as he possesses a T18th finish at the WM Phoenix Open and a runner-up result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2026.
Last year, he finished T5th and, had it not been for an opening round 77, he may well have gone on to claim the title, especially as he finished four back of the winner. He has course form and, with some good results under his belt, Straka will be one to watch.
Pick One: Rory McIlroy To Win @ BetMGM
I can't quite convince myself to pull the trigger on Scottie Scheffler because of his slow starts of late, so I'm going to make my A1 pick the next best option - Rory McIlroy.
The World No.2 has been trending in the right direction since I last picked him (at the Dubai Desert Classic) and produced a classic McIlroy show at the Genesis Invitational to roar back on Sunday.
A past champion of this event, McIlroy has regularly produced strong results here. What's let him down in the past two attempts is his iron play, but I don't foresee that being an issue this time.
Plus, his putting has cost him a chance at winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational before, but his stats at the moment suggest he's putting really well once his eye is in, so maybe a second red cardigan is around the corner...
Pick Two: Jake Knapp To Win @ BetMGM
Jake Knapp has been quietly playing some incredibly good golf this season, with four top-10s and a T11th from his five starts in 2026. More specifically, his putting stats have been amazing and the distance he possesses always gives him a chance at taking down even the most fearsome of layouts.
Knapp's first appearance here last year was tough, finishing T56th, but that was almost exclusively down to his troubles off the tee.
However, I don't see that being an issue this time and I'm hopeful the young man can put himself in the frame come Sunday.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Winning Picks (Since Start Of 2025)
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
