If football is an ever-changing sport, Lionel Scaloni only needs to look at his forward line to see proof of that: Lionel Messi, the most influential, most prolific false nine of the modern era, helped bring a position from the past back into favour. Yet if football is an ever-longer game, it presents problems for Messi: his ambition of winning the World Cup could suffer a fatal setback at a point when matches tended to have finished, at a point when Argentina feel at their weakest and when Croatia could be at their strongest.
Argentina’s progress thus far has been a nervous, emotional, fraught affair. Having seemingly won games, an inability to see them out could have cost them dearly. They took two-goal leads in both the last-16 then the quarter-final. They required a 97th-minute save from Emi Martinez to stop the substitute Garang Kuol earning Australia extra time. They were pegged back by Wout Weghorst’s 101st-minute equaliser for the Netherlands, eventually prevailing on penalties thanks to Martinez.
The timings of the chances might have felt outlandish until a few weeks ago. Yet this World Cup has been notable for previously unprecedented amounts of stoppage time; if it is scarcely ideal for any side who were ahead, it can be particularly problematic for a team as incapable of maintaining control as Argentina.
Their manager tried to be philosophical. “I am not saying it is fair or not,” said Scaloni. “It is new to reach the eight, nine or 10 minutes of extra time and that creates some insecurity, especially for the team that is winning. We saw that also in the match of Croatia and Brazil. That is a whole new situation in this World Cup. To have 10 or 12 minutes of added time creates uncertainty.”
Arguably, Argentina have created enough uncertainty themselves. Nicolas Otamendi and Cristian Romero represent one of the more hot-headed centre-back partnerships around, with each capable of rashness. Leandro Paredes was the defensive midfielder sent on to shore his side up in the quarter-final, risked a red card when needlessly hammering the ball into the Dutch dugout and, along with German Pezzella, fouled Weghorst for the late free kick that led to his equaliser.
“You make decisions in the moment and [because of] the opponent. Against the Netherlands it was difficult because they play long balls into the area and they created one chance,” Scaloni rationalised, after a cross led to the first of Weghorst’s brace. There has been a certain disdain from Argentina for the direct Dutch tactics when Louis van Gaal sent on twin target men, in Luuk de Jong and Weghorst. It offers a warning for a semi-final with Croatia. “They are very good and they are also tall,” said defender Nicolas Tagliafico; Otamendi, Romero and Lisandro Martinez are not especially tall. Nor are full-backs like Nahuel Molina and Tagliafico.
And yet Croatia’s height should not represent the greatest cause for concern. If Argentina are the team who have taken the lead in every game this World Cup, Croatia are the comeback kings. They levelled in the 117th minute against Brazil. They have conceded first in their last six knockout ties, and prevailed in five. If Argentina are prone to panic, Croatia are the definition of calmness.
They have fewer millions of supporters worrying about them; they do not need to be weighed down by the possibility Messi will never win the World Cup. It scarcely felt mind games from Zlatko Dalic to suggest his side have a lesser burden on their shoulders. “They are under greater pressure than we are,” the Croatia manager said.
Pressure can tell in penalty shootouts, though each side has a specialist at stopping spot kicks. Dominik Livakovic has made four saves, three against Japan and one versus Brazil. Emi Martinez repelled the Netherlands’ first two penalties. If one very plausible scenario is that Argentina are 1-0 or 2-1 up as the game enters injury time, another is that a semi-final is decided on spot kicks. Yet even if Martinez is a reassuring presence, the goalkeeper may not be enough to soothe Argentinian nerves.
“We can never be too calm, regardless of having a very good goalkeeper, you can never be calm,” Tagliafico added. “The last minutes are decisive. Maybe we are winning in the last minutes and anything can happen, maybe we are losing and we suffer. We need to try and find a way so we don’t suffer that much.” But as Argentina pursue Messi’s greatest win of all, even their victories have come cloaked in suffering of late.
