Match five at the 2022 World Cup saw one of the biggest upsets in the history of international football. Argentina, one of the favourites to win the tournament, were beaten 2-1 by Saudi Arabia. In terms of the FIFA rankings, it was the biggest mismatch in the Group Stage in Qatar.
And according to elo ratings, it was the fifth most unlikely international result of all time. It’s only narrowly behind the USA’s defeat of England at the 1950 World Cup, an omen which looms large ahead of those countries meeting on Friday.
While Argentina had more than enough chances to win – taking 15 shots, including two clear-cut opportunities – Saudi Arabia defended well and made the upmost of their attacking moments when they came along. The match felt like some of Liverpool’s this season, where their failure to turn dominance into goals allowed unlikely results to occur. The similarities didn’t end there either.
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The Argentina line-up carried an average age of 30.2 ( per Sofascore ), 1.6 years older than their Saudi Arabian counterparts. OptaJoe revealed the South Americans became “the first team in World Cup history to have four players aged 34+ in their starting XI.”
Experience is important, but did Lionel Scaloni’s team selection tip too far? Saudi Arabia were notably younger on average and two of their back four were only 23-years-old. They had the legs required to withstand a match which lasted over 100 minutes.
Similar age discrepancies may have hampered Liverpool in 2022/23. They haven’t been quite as decrepit as Argentina were on Tuesday, with James Milner their only player over 33 years old and their average age in the Premier League being under 28 so far this season. But they have fielded their oldest line up for almost 70 years, and their team is well stocked with relative veterans.
Looking at the average age of the Reds’ side in the last few years, it becomes clear that they have largely grown old together. Per Transfermarkt, Liverpool’s starting XI in the 2017/18 Premier League had an average age of 25.5, the youngest in the division. Fast forward five years and Jurgen Klopp’s XIs have been 27.5 years of age, behind only Fulham and West Ham in the standings for this season.
The age of the Reds has been evident on a game-by-game basis too. In only three of their 14 league matches have Liverpool been the younger of the two teams. That they only won one of them – drawing with Crystal Palace and losing at Nottingham Forest – shows age alone will never be the determining factor in results.
But it’s fair to wonder if it plays at least some part. While being suitably wary of the small samples involved, when the Reds have won a league game in 2022/23 they’ve been an average of 1.1 years older than their opponents, but 1.9 when they have suffered defeat. The first three matches in which the age margin was at least two years all ended in a loss, though they overcame Southampton (who were 2.8 years younger) last time out.
There’s no doubt that injuries have contributed to the figures in this campaign. Roberto Firmino is five years older than both Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota, and would not have started so frequently had the younger men been available more often. Similarly, Liverpool’s three oldest players in the league have been midfielders, so Naby Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could have brought the average age down in the centre of the team if they had been fit.
But it’s equally clear that this is an issue the recruitment team at Liverpool need to address in the forthcoming transfer windows. Both the Reds' record this season and the fate of Argentina in their World Cup opener illustrate the potential pitfalls of fielding an ageing team.
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