It is less than a week since the local elections confirmed that party politics in England are changing in big ways. The weekend coronation then blew the election results off the front pages. But, with the king back in his palace and the bunting now stored away, it is important to re-engage with the inquest. A new electoral map of England emerged out of last week’s voting. The map matters. It is important to grasp what it means for British politics – but also to grasp what it doesn’t mean.
What it mainly means is that Labour is on course for a general election victory. Keir Starmer is right to make this claim. Projections from 4 May give the party a share of the poll lead of seven or nine points over the Conservatives. It’s a strange political system that sees this as disappointing. But with Prof John Curtice and his colleagues arguing that Labour will need a lead of 12 points to form a majority government, that’s how it is. It is a sign of how high the opposition’s expectations were raised by the Tory debacles of 2022 that there is suddenly now such nervousness.
