Chesapeake, Virginia-based Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company has a market capitalization of $24.9 billion and offers a range of everyday consumables, including food, candy, health, and personal care products.
DLTR stock has lagged behind the broader market over the past year, growing 16.2% compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 20.1% surge. Moreover, in 2026, the stock has risen by nearly 5.9%, underperforming the SPX’s 13.1% rise.
Focusing on its industry benchmark, the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has risen 3.2% over the past year, underperforming the stock. In 2026, however, XLP has grown 9% and has rallied the stock.
DLTR has not been the preferred defensive stock choice for analysts due to its less-than-desirable fundamentals. The company has been experiencing a downward spiral in revenue. The company has not been able to generate growing demand over the last three years as its sales dropped at a 11.8% annual rate. Moreover, the company has a lower gross margin, revealing loose structural profitability. Additionally, its five-year average ROIC was 7.1%, as compared to the best consumer retail companies, which average nearly 30%, and is quite low.
For the current year, which ends in January 2027, analysts expect DLTR’s EPS to rise 21.7% to $7 on a diluted basis. The company surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 26 analysts covering DLTR stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 12 “Holds,” two “Moderate Sells,” and two “Strong Sells.”
The configuration has remained more or less unchanged over the past months.
On Aug. 17, Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly maintained an “Overweight” rating for Dollar Tree and raised the price target from $145 to $155.
DLTR’s mean price target of $127.46 is below its current market price. Its Street-high target of $170 implies a robust 31.2% upside from current levels.
