Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities. Valued at $15.2 billion by market cap, the company provides clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably.
Shares of this leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. CF has gained 16.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 30.1%. In 2024, CF’s stock rose 13.1%, compared to the SPX’s 24.1% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, CF’s outperformance is apparent compared to the iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (IYM). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 12.3% over the past year. Moreover, CF’s double-digit returns on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 4.7% gains over the same time frame.
On Oct. 30, CF shares closed up marginally after reporting its Q3 results. Its EPS of $1.55 surpassed Wall Street expectations of $1.05. The company’s revenue was $1.4 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts of $1.2 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect CF’s EPS to decline 21.3% to $6.32 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the 14 analysts covering CF stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” seven “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration is less bullish than two months ago, with five analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Nov. 14, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Benjamin Theurer maintained a “Buy” rating on CF with a price target of $96, implying a potential upside of 6.8% from current levels.
While CF currently trades above its mean price target of $87.57, the Street-high price target of $105 suggests an upside potential of 16.8%.
