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Fortune
Fortune
Nick Lichtenberg

America’s massive ‘money illusion’ is setting the S&P 500 up for a correction as stagflation takes hold, top analysts say

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (Credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images)

A question looms over Wall Street as it digests the stock market highs in the dog days of summer 2025: Is this another version of the dotcom bubble? Apollo’s Torsten Slok has already calculated that the top 10 S&P 500 companies today are more overvalued than in the late ’90s tech boom. Now the investment bank Stifel is predicting that even as “euphoric markets party like it’s 1999,” a stock market correction and stagflation are ahead.

Stifel’s strategists, led by Barry Bannister and Thomas Carroll, wrote in a research note that they are simply “uncomfortable” with the S&P 500 gaining 32% off its April 7 intraday low as the latest GDP figures show the actual economy slowing almost to a crawl. They further warn that “hopium” is a powerful drug and that stock markets may be “whistling past the graveyard.”

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