It's somewhat explainable how Red Bull ended up here. You don't necessarily have to agree that Christian Horner and Helmut Marko have made all the right decisions regarding their team's driver line-up over the past year and a half, but you can still find some logic in how they came to the point where they had to replace Sergio Perez with Liam Lawson.
It's fairly easy to say now that it was a mistake to bring back Daniel Ricciardo and give him an audition with the junior team, keeping Lawson on the bench. And it turned out to be just that - an obvious mistake - but imagine what a story it could have been had it all worked out! It was perhaps even a slightly sentimental move on Horner's part, as it's no secret how much of a fan he is of the Australian. But who wouldn't have loved the story? One of the most popular characters in the paddock returns to the family after a few troubled years with Renault and McLaren. You can see how it might have seemed almost irresistible - or at least worth a try.
It's now clear that extending Perez's contract was a disaster. But even that decision was, in a way, perfectly understandable. At the start of this season, Perez was simply the ideal second driver that Red Bull needed, full stop. A good team player, collecting podiums, adding points to the team's constructors' championship tally - and not really bothering Max Verstappen. In early 2024, Perez was simply perfect - not least because he seemed to have accepted by then that he would never be able to challenge his team-mate. His huge fan base in Mexico, buying hundreds of thousands of Red Bull branded caps, and a portfolio of sponsors were a massive added bonus.
If Checo had remained as consistent as he was at the start of the season, no one would have thought that Red Bull needed to sign someone like Carlos Sainz. After all, if only half of the stories about how bad things went between the Sainz and Verstappen camps at Toro Rosso in 2015 and early 2016 are true, the risk of bringing the Spaniard back into the family would appear unjustified.
Yes, when Perez's contract was renewed, he was already showing signs of decline, but it could have been dismissed as just "a blip". After all, at that point, his stellar start to the season had only been marred by a disappointing weekend in Imola and a couple of crashes in Monaco. But who hasn’t had a bad weekend? And is there even a single driver on the grid who has never crashed in Monaco?
That was probably too tempting for Horner and Marko to hope Checo's just going to shrug it all off. Plus, the new contract, they hoped, could have delivered a confidence boost.
The decision to keep him after the summer break is harder to explain. But it’s also true that the 2024 F1 calendar still had tracks where Checo had excelled in the past: Baku, Singapore... Is it really so wrong to blame Red Bull for hoping the Mexican would rediscover his form?
But this is exactly what seems to be wrong with all of these decisions: you can’t help but think they were all made based purely on hope alone - with almost nothing else to support it.
They hoped that Ricciardo's dreadful two years at McLaren weren't evidence of a decline - even though by the end of that stint, things looked so bad that hardly anyone blamed Zak Brown for paying the Australian's year salary just to keep him out of the cockpit.
Of course, there was that magical lap at Silverstone during the test that Red Bull arranged for Ricciardo to orchestrate his return. But that - while great for Netflix - was hardly a solid enough reason to believe the F1's honey badger was back to his old self.
It's also hard to justify Perez's contract extension. How could Red Bull hope that Perez's 'blip' wouldn't last several months, when something similar has already happened in both 2022 and 2023?
Red Bull continued to hope even after the Australian's underwhelming finish to last season - when, apart from the weekend in Mexico, there was little to celebrate. And then Horner still hoped for some miracle even when nothing's really changed at the start of 2024 - buying his driver more time even when Marko was already ready to part ways.
It's also hard to justify Perez's contract extension. How could Red Bull hope that Perez's 'blip' wouldn't last several months, when something similar has already happened in both 2022 and 2023? They must have at least waited.
And now Red Bull will hope that a youngster with eleven grand prix starts can handle what Horner himself describes as the toughest job in F1. Of all the decisions made in the last year and a half, this one is probably the most difficult to explain.
If you ignore the entire backstory that led to Lawson being handed a seat at Red Bull Racing - with all the miscalculations and failed bets - it's almost impossible to find any rationale behind this particular move.
Red Bull Racing, a team that has won six titles in the last four years, has signed a driver with just eleven F1 race starts. A driver whose best F1 result is ninth place. A driver with no major junior titles. A driver who fell behind his team-mate in six out of six qualifying sessions and scored fewer points during their time together.
Think about it: a year ago, Lawson wasn't quite good enough for Red Bull to offer him a place in its junior team. Now, with six more races under his belt, he's suddenly good enough for the main squad.
Lawson is said to be a fast learner. He's jumped between cars in recent years and has always adapted quickly and managed to win races. That's true. But wins aren't titles - and we're talking about racing for one of the best teams on the grid. At the top, it's not just about getting to your maximum quickly, it's about having a maximum that's exceptionally high. But just how good Lawson really is remains a question mark. After all, the last time he drove the same car for two years in a row was in Formula 2. Finishing ninth in his first season and third in his second doesn't exactly scream 'top team material'.
Even if he is a quick learner, it hasn't helped him to immediately outperform Yuki Tsunoda - and that's not good news either. There's clearly something about the Japanese driver that makes Red Bull reluctant to promote him. Taken in isolation, this can be explained. You could argue that Tsunoda's actions on the cool-down lap in Bahrain alone were enough to put Horner and Marko off. You could also add to the list of "reasons not to take Tsunoda" a couple of costly mistakes - like in Canada, where he spun while running in the points, or a crash in Q2 in Mexico. And that's valid. But it's also hard to ignore the fact that Red Bull - as brutal as it sounds - has settled for a driver who is slower than the one they don't even seem to be considering.
How can someone be a quick learner when a handful of races weren't enough for them to start beating their team-mate? How can someone be considered ready for a top team if they've never demonstrated that kind of potential? Even if it's because they haven't had the time for it. There simply isn't enough evidence to support either argument.
And then there's Lawson's ability to deal with pressure. He's done well both times Red Bull has thrown him into the junior team car: solid performances, no big crashes and a few points. In fact, he was close to, and sometimes faster than, a much more experienced team-mate. Without those performances, Lawson wouldn't even be in contention for a Red Bull seat. At least he appears to be reliable.
But that is all based on two short stints with Red Bull's junior team - in circumstances where there was little to lose. Nobody expects miracles from a driver who comes in as a mid-season replacement. So simply finishing a race in horrendous conditions at Zandvoort last year, or scoring points in Austin this year, was seen as an overachievement.
At Red Bull, however, expectations will be much higher. And that's when his said ability to handle the pressure will really be tested.
Lawson hasn't yet experienced the feeling of coming back to the garage after a lap he's happy with in qualifying and seeing Verstappen four tenths quicker. And that will inevitably happen - sooner rather than later and on a regular basis. He will, at some point, have the pressure of having to choose between two unappealing options: either accept that the Dutchman is just that much quicker, or try to chase those tenths with the set-up. Ask Pierre Gasly how much fun it is.
There will be mistakes. Franz Tost likes to say that any driver has to go through a 'crash period' - and even Verstappen did. If Lawson's 'crash period' comes soon, it will be under the spotlight that comes with driving one of the fastest cars on the grid.
The biggest conundrum is whether, by putting so much faith in Lawson now, Red Bull risks losing a much stronger version of him in the future
Perez, despite all his experience, couldn't avoid getting into a spiral. Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon couldn't escape either. And the media won't wait. There will be articles after every single mistake. There will be opinions - including one from Jacques Villeneuve. And you can shrug it off - but you'll just know that what comes out of Villeneuve's mouth is on everyone's mind.
It's a whole new level of pressure, isn't it?
The biggest conundrum is whether, by putting so much faith in Lawson now, Red Bull risks losing a much stronger version of him in the future. No driver would turn down such an opportunity. And there's no way Lawson had any doubts before accepting the offer. But what if he collapses - just like Daniil Kvyat, Gasly or Albon did? And what if he really has the potential to be Red Bull's lead driver one day, but isn't given the time to develop and learn? Does it even make sense to risk burning him now?
Even if the Red Bull bosses don't see Tsunoda as a driver for the top team, there's almost no harm in putting him in the car for a year: if he fails, it's no big deal because they never expected him to shine anyway. But giving Lawson - a driver whose potential Red Bull clearly values more - another year to learn the basics should have been a no-brainer.
Yet here they are, putting him in that seat. With no clear evidence that he can actually be faster and more consistent than 'just' Tsunoda. With no guarantees that he's ready for a front-running car. With no solid arguments to back up the talk of his potential.
But who needs all that when there's hope?
