“It sounds like she’s toast.”
That was the assessment of Kemi Badenoch when, not for the first time, Sir Keir Starmer failed to guarantee that Rachel Reeves will keep her job as chancellor.
In a fiery PMQs, the Tory leader had asked the prime minister if he would “listen to businesses, listen to the country and reshuffle the chancellor”, to which he responded that Ms Reeves had seen various economic successes during her tenure but, crucially, did not guarantee her future in the job.
Downing Street got into gear immediately after PMQs to say Sir Keir has “full confidence” in his chancellor and the “position is unchanged”, but the damage was done.
This series of events played out in almost the same way less than a year ago, when the prime minister was forced into an impromptu love-in 24 hours after failing to guarantee the future of his tearful chancellor in the Commons.
But as the situation gets increasingly desperate for this prime minister, he is now being forced to consider big moves to save his premiership.
The Independent revealed last month that Ms Reeves was a potential casualty in a reshuffle to re-establish Sir Keir’s authority and if he wants to pivot to the left and change economic policy, he will need a new person in the Treasury.
The problem for this prime minister – in fact any prime minister – is that sacking a chancellor is usually a precursor to losing your job as well. Just ask Liz Truss, who barely survived a week after sacking Kwasi Kwarteng.
Tony Blair famously wanted to move on from Gordon Brown, but knew it would be politically catastrophic to do so.
The last prime minister to get away with changing chancellor was Boris Johnson, when he got rid of Sajid Javid and installed Rishi Sunak. However, just a month later the country was in lockdown and any thoughts of reshuffling were dismissed as the country navigated the pandemic. Mr Javid had not even delivered a Budget at the point he quit, and later took revenge when he quit as health secretary, triggering a series of resignations that ended Mr Johnson’s tenure in Downing Street.
Nevertheless, with dreadful election results expected for Labour on 7 May and the prime minister having already spent so much political capital surviving the Peter Mandelson scandal, he will need something dramatic to stay in power.
Already there is chat about ex-deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and other left-wingers, such as the former transport secretary Louise Haigh, coming back to rebalance the party.
Ms Reeves, while important, does not have many political allies and could be an easier sacrifice than would normally be the case for a chancellor.
And with the forced departure or sacking of so many senior figures by Sir Keir, we know he is capable of being ruthless when things get desperate.
After all, he is looking for his third permanent under-secretary to the Foreign Office, he has gone through four directors of communication, is on his third and fourth chiefs of staff, who share the role, and his third cabinet secretary – with his government not two years’ old yet.
The biggest question would be who could replace her. It would need to be someone with a very different economic vision, perhaps the energy secretary Ed Miliband.
With parliament set to be off until the King’s speech on 13 May, the reshuffle speculation is only going to grow as the questions about Sir Keir’s own future increase.
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