- The Brazilian real continues to come under pressure, moving within sight of its historic low while Brazil's Selic rate remains near mid-range.
- The US dollar index is holding near its mid-range while one side of the US political aisle continues to call for Fed fund rate cuts.
- In the end, it may not make much difference in the world of global markets as long as the US-China trade war remains in place.
I’m on record stating my idea the strength and/or weakness of global currencies is not the underlying factor in world trade that many still believe it to be. While world trade has always been a political game, with occasional timeouts for supply disruptions (weather, wars, etc.), we see it even more these days, particularly in the United States, as the ramifications of childish trade wars and tariffs are still being felt. Again, though, this isn’t anything new. When was the last time we heard of US wheat being sold to Egypt?[i] Or India for that matter? As the importer/exporters in New York or New Jersey would say, “Fuggeddaboudit”.
