The last major public poll of 2022 has underscored the tough task ahead for Jacinda Ardern's Labour party to win a third term at next year's election.
A TVNZ-Kantar poll released on Monday night confirm opposition party National's ascendancy, with 38 per cent support to Labour's 33 per cent.
If those numbers are repeated at the 2023 election, National would govern with a majority in coalition with the right-wing ACT party, which polled 11 per cent.
Citing rising cost of living and inflation, Ms Ardern told TVNZ there was "no question it is a difficult time to be in government".
"Our job is to crack on because we have the privilege of governing, and that is what we're doing," she said.
The figures stand in stark contrast to where Ms Ardern and Labour finished the year, with a 41 to 28 lead over centre-right National.
National has led Labour in the last six polls published by New Zealand's broadcasters, TVNZ and Three.
A major difference is opposition leader Chris Luxon, who took the helm 12 months ago, correlating to the start of National's soaring support.
The former Air New Zealand chief executive recorded his best-ever personal support in the TVNZ poll at 23 per cent.
While Ms Ardern remains ahead, she clocked her worst result of 29 per cent.
"This is showing New Zealanders feel the country's going in the wrong direction," Mr Luxon said.
"What they can see is a government that's just not getting things done."
In recent months, Ms Ardern's government appears increasingly engaged in fighting political spot-fires, responding to opposition attacks rather than promoting its own agenda.
Cost of living pressures fuelled by high inflation and rising interest rates are hurting Kiwis, while crime heavily featured in media coverage during the polling period.
In one incident, a milk bar worker was murdered in Ms Ardern's own electorate, sparking nationwide protests and even a lunchtime strike by local store owners.
The poll also showed the Greens on track to return to parliament, polling nine per cent.
NZ First - the party of veteran populist Winston Peters and Ms Ardern's deputy PM during her first term - has risen to four per cent, just short of the threshold of five per cent to gain parliamentary representation.
"Experience and common sense is certainly what New Zealand First brings in spades," the charismatic 77-year-old said.
The next election is due in late 2023, with Ms Ardern indicating she will follow tradition of announcing a polling day early in the year.
Pundits are predicting a November election day, avoiding a clash with school holidays and the All Blacks' campaign at the World Cup.
While the general election is months away, a test of the government's popularity will arrive on Saturday.
A by-election is being staged in the bellwether seat of Hamilton West on December 10 after Labour sacked its rogue representative Gaurav Sharma, and the MP responded by resigning his seat to stand as an independent.
Given the drama surrounding Dr Sharma and the confluence of issues hurting Ms Ardern's government, both Dr Sharma and Labour's Georgie Dansie are expected to lose to National's Tama Potaka.
Voters in Hamilton West appear uninspired.
Turnout in pre-polling is running at roughly half of the number who voted in a by-election held in Tauranga earlier this year.
LATEST NEW ZEALAND POLITICAL POLL
Labour - 33 per cent (down 1)
National - 38 (up 1)
ACT - 11 (up 2)
Greens - 9 (steady)
NZ First - 4 (up 1)
Maori Party - 2 (steady)
TOP - 2 (up 1)
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Jacinda Ardern (Labour) - 29 per cent (down 1)
Chris Luxon (National) - 23 (up 2)
David Seymour (ACT) - 6 (up 2)
Winston Peters (NZ First) - 2 (steady)
Chloe Swarbrick (Greens) - 2 (up 1)
