Apple is pulling the super popular Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 from its website this Thursday, (December 21), at precisely 3 p.m. EST/noon PST. The unexpected Apple Watch ban stems from a drawn-out patent dispute over the blood oxygen sensor (SpO2) found in most Apple Watch models, beginning with the Series 6.
This means that come Thursday afternoon, US-based shoppers will no longer be able to buy two of the best smartwatches on the market directly from Apple.com. In-store sales will continue only through December 24 and then stop for the foreseeable future.
So, if you're thinking of purchasing either the Apple Watch Series 9 or Apple Watch Ultra 2, do so quickly.
This is what else you need to know about the Apple Watch ban.
Apple Watch ban: The backstory in brief
Back in October, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) upheld a ruling from earlier in the year stating Apple violated a patent owned by Masimo — a smaller medical technology company — with the launch of 2020’s Apple Watch Series 6 (now discontinued).
As noted, the dispute is over the SpO2 sensor found on the rear of most Apple Watch models going back to 2020. In short, Masimo alleges that Apple ripped off its tech and continues to do so with each subsequent release beyond the Series 6. Apple denies this, counterclaiming instead that Masimo ripped off the entire Apple Watch design.
Why did Apple pull the Series 9 and Ultra 2?
October's ITC ruling automatically triggered a 60-day presidential review period. During this time, President Joe Biden has the authority to veto the ruling based on administration concerns. The period expires on December 25, 2023. And so far, it seems unlikely President Biden will come to Tim Cook and Co.'s rescue.
As a result, Apple is voluntarily pulling the Ultra 2 and Series 9 from online and in-store shelves just ahead of schedule, in anticipation of the president not intervening. What happens next? Apple will appeal the ITC's decision to the Federal Circuit.
Apple Watch ban: How bad is the situation?
Apple Watches represents roughly 50% of the world's global smartwatch market. So this is a pretty big deal for the Cupertino tech giant. However, several factors mitigate the impact on consumers and Apple's bottom line.
For one, the ban only impacts the U.S. market. "Apple Watch sells particularly well in its home market. [However] Apple gets the majority of sales outside the U.S.," said Avi Greengart, chief analyst with Techsponential.
The timing also couldn't be better for Apple. "In the U.S., most of its holiday sales occur before December 24 when the ban would go into effect, so the financial impact would start after the holiday season," says Greengart.
Finally, even if sales of the Ultra 2 and Series 9 stop, Apple says that the Apple Watch SE will continue to be available from Apple's online and brick-and-mortar stores. The SE also happens to be the best-value smartwatch available.
Apple Watch ban: How long will it last?
How long will US customers be unable to purchase the Apple Watch Ultra 2 and Series 9? "It’s hard to predict," Greengart said. "The watches will be removed from the market unless the ITC ruling is vetoed or until it is overturned on appeal."
Of course, Apple and Masimo could always settle up and avoid all the hubbub and awkward press.
Apple engineers also could design around the disputed patent and roll out a new Apple Watch Series 10 — which we just got a glimpse at— and/or Ultra 3 ahead of schedule. This is probably just wishful thinking, though.
What about third-party retailers?
Big box retailers like Amazon and Best Buy can continue selling the Apple Watch Ultra 2 and Series 9 beyond the December 25 deadline. The catch is that once those pallets of devices dry up, new shipments won't roll in until things are settled.
Greengart expects both devices will remain available via third-party retailers through most of January but not much further beyond.
What's the best-case scenario for Apple?
Apple is by no means backed into a corner in the Masimo pulsometer patent saga, even if things appear dire. "The best possible outcome for Apple is for President Biden to veto the ITC ruling," said Greengart. "The next best is for Apple to quickly win on appeal," he adds.
"Beyond that, a settlement with Masimo [would be best], but Apple would almost certainly prefer to discourage rivals from competing through the legal system than in the marketplace," Greengart added.
Apple Watch ban: What happens next?
There's little precedent for presidents to intervene in ITC rulings, so, it seems unlikely we'll hear from Biden before the deadline expires. This means that the case is almost certainly headed to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. How long it will work its way through there is anyone's guess. The U.S. court system is notoriously sluggish!
For its part, Apple is likely doing all it can internally to fix the issue. According to a report from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the company is working on a software update it believes could satisfy US Customs. Gurman states engineers in Cupertino are racing to make changes to algorithms on the device, calling it a "high-stakes engineering effort unlike any Apple has undertaken before."
We'll update this story as we learn more. Stay tuned.
