Antimicrobial resistance could claim 39 million lives by 2050, with a 50% increase in global deaths directly attributable to antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections compared to 2019, a recent study revealed.
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when infections become difficult to treat because the infection-causing pathogen adapts to antibiotics due to their overuse and misuse. WHO considers it one of the top global public health and development threats which has contributed to 1.27 million global deaths in 2019.
In the latest study published in The Lancet, researchers from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and other institutions presented the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of antimicrobial resistance from 1990 to 2021 and projected it through 2050.
"Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern. These findings highlight that antimicrobial resistance has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing. Understanding how trends in antimicrobial deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in the future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives," said study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi in a news release.
In the study, the researchers estimated deaths and illnesses attributable to antimicrobial resistance for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infections across 204 countries and territories from 1990 through 2021.
They then noted an interesting trend: a drop in deaths from antimicrobial resistance by around 50% among children younger than 5 and an increase in the same by more than 80% among adults 70 and older.
"We had these two opposite trends going on: a decline in antimicrobial resistance deaths under age 15, mostly due to vaccination, water and sanitation programs, some treatment programs, and the success of those. And at the same time, there's this steady increase in the number of deaths over age 50," lead author Dr. Chris Murray told CNN.
According to the study results, South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean are "super-regions with the highest all-age antimicrobial resistance mortality rate in 2050." After analyzing different age groups, the biggest impact was observed among those 70 years and older.
However, with improved access to health care and antibiotics, a total of 92 million lives could be saved between 2025 and 2050, the researchers noted.
"Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million antimicrobial resistance deaths could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent antimicrobial resistance deaths," the researchers concluded.
