As my former Touchdown Wire colleague and current SB Nation NFL majordomo Mark Schofield likes to say, when it comes to quarterbacks, progress is not linear. You never know if, when, and to what degree the light is going to go on, and what will happen if and when it does.
In the case of Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, who declared for the 2023 NFL draft this week, we’re left with one full season as a starter — 2022, in which he completed 176 of 327 passes (53.8%) 2,549 yards (7.6 YPA), 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 85.5. In two seasons with the Gators before that, Richardson had completed just 39 of 66 passes (59.1%) for 556 yards (8.4 YPA), seven touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 83.9.
Richardson also ran 161 times for 1,116 yards, 6.9 yards per carry, and 12 touchdowns, but that’s the part that’s established. What NFL teams need to evaluate is where he is as a passer, and what needs to be done to bring his talent up to his potential.
There are those who have already come out and said that Richardson is a two-year project as a professional quarterback, and yet, he shows the kind of flashes that should have him selected in the first round. That may be the case, but work with me here — what if the first year of two years needed before Richardson can really succeed in the NFL is 2022, and he’s shaved a year off with his growth in his one college starting season?
Both tape and stats show a major upswing in development.
In Weeks 1-6 of the 2022 season, Richardson looked very much like what he was — a quarterback with limited experience, finding his way. Over that stretch of time, his stats were… well… unremarkable.
- Richardson completed 79 of 144 passes (54.9%) for 1,178 yards (8.2 YPA), five touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 73.2.
- The deep throws were incendiary when on, and mystery meat when not. He completed 14 of 30 passes of 20 or more air yards (46.7%) for 498 yards (16.6 YPA), three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.6.
- Under pressure, Richardson completed 15 of 44 passes (34.1%) for 209 yards (4.8 YPA), one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 48.4.
Now, when we get to Weeks 7-13, we are dealing with an entirely different quarterback.
- Richardson completed 96 of 186 passes (51.6%)for 1,375 yards (7.4 YPA), 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 92.9.
- On throws of 20 or more air yards, he completed 12 of 34 passes (35.3%) for 502 yards (14.8% YPA), six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 132.7.
- Under pressure, he completed 26 of 64 passes (40.6%) for 384 yards (6.0 YPA), six touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.2.
Perhaps most importantly for the purposes of projecting him to an NFL passing game, Richardson showed radical improvement in the second half of the season in short and intermediate throws.
- In Weeks 1-6, on throws of 0-19 air yards, Richardson completed 67 of 116 passes (57.8%) for 705 yards (6.1 YPA), two touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.3.
- In Weeks 7-12, on throws of those air distances, he completed 84 of 153 passes (54.9%) for 880 yards (5.8 YPA), seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 81.6.
Are the completion rates still a concern? Absolutely, and they will be more so in an NFL that requires a higher yield than this. We will get into the reasons for this in our tape review. But in an overall sense, it’s clear that Anthony Richardson took some major steps forward in his one year as an NCAA starting quarterback.
Now, the question is, what will it mean to the NFL?
Where Richardson struggled at the start.
Early in the season, there was a randomness to Richardson’s play that often happens to young quarterbacks who are used to using their mobility to get themselves out of difficult situations. When pressured, or when his reads weren’t really defined, he’d tend to wind up in a schism where he wanted to run, knew he had to throw, and things just didn’t go well.
There were also times when Richardson and his targets really weren’t on the same page, as this pick-six by Kentucky cornerback Keidron Smith in Week 2 showed. Richardson thought he had an easy quick throw to his right, running back Nay’Quan Wright ran what was either a comeback or a “Oh, #$%^ — our guy just threw an interception” route, and the results speak for themselves.
Vision from the pocket was also an issue at times. Against USF in Week 3, Richardson had receiver Ricky Pearsall running an intermediate crosser on a switch release from left to right. Richardson actually did a nice job of looking the safety off to his right, but when he re-focused over the middle, he committed two cardinal sins: He threw Pearsall late and closed through the coverage, and he failed to account for linebacker Dwayne Boyles, who was right where Richardson was intending to throw.
Richardson has the kind of arm strength most quarterbacks would envy, but it didn’t always transfer to arm talent. On this interception against Eastern Washington in Week 6, he tried to feather a deep throw to Xzavier Henderson on a seam route. Two issues here: There wasn’t enough velocity on the throw to allow Henderson to release from quadruple coverage… and Richardson was throwing into quadruple coverage in the first place when he had Justin Shorter wide-ass open on the intermediate crosser. This is where Henderson is the clear-out guy. Shorter is the target, and you thank the football gods for such an easy opportunity.
Also: You’re up 35-3 at the start of the second half. Take the profit, man.
Now, let’s get into how Richardson improved over the second half of the season.
Using the threat of the run to set up the pass.
The idea here is to view Richardson through a passing lens, but when he starts to use his edge as a runner to make passing plays, you want to take notice of that, as well. This 21-yard completion to tight end Jonathan Odom against Florida State showed how Richardson can pin a defense with that run threat. There was 1;34 left in the game, Florida State was up, 45-38 (which is how it would stay), and Richardson had to make something happen. Two things stood in his way: Florida State’s outstanding downfield coverage, and a compressed pocket that forced him to bail. But instead of trying a low-risk throw, or just running to run, Richardson saw Odom as his bailout read, and took what was there.
Now, why was Odom so open on the short crosser? Because FSU linebacker Kalen DeLoach had to hand Odom off to nobody and stay in the middle to spy Richardson. That’s how you put a defense on a string, even when they do just about everything right.
We all know that quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes can do this at the NFL level. It makes sense that Richardson’s continued development in this area will be crucial.
Seeing what's there, and eliminating what isn't.
To quote another colleague, Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup likes to say that the art of quarterbacking is to a large degree about isolating what’s there, and eliminating what isn’t. What that means is that the best quarterbacks are able to quickly break down closed options, get past them, and make the throws that are there. We’ve seen Richardson improve here, and specifically learn from his mistakes.
Remember that weird interception against Eastern Washington, where Richardson missed the crosser and was going to throw the seam route no matter what? He clearly learned from that mistake, and this 33-yard completion to Pearsall against Florida State is proof. This time, he let Caleb Douglas be the clear-out guy on the seam route to his left, and hit Pearsall on the easy crosser.
What you see in this play, and the two plays to follow, is a quarterback becoming comfortable reading and throwing to all levels of the field. That he already has the physical abilities to do that with ease makes him a potentially dangerous weapon in the NFL.
The "Get out of jail free" arm is real, and it is spectacular.
Richardson has an absolute howitzer of an arm, but the corollary between arm strength and arm talent hasn’t always been clear. What I have seen from Richardson in the second half of the season? Fewer deep waste shots, where he’s just barfing the ball into space, and more instances in which he uses his velocity, adding timing and rhythm to the throw, to make some truly exceptional plays.
This touchdown pass against LSU was… well, not a lot of guys can do this at any level.
Going deep into Anthony Richardson as a prospect today, but I wanted to show this example of his "Get out of jail free" arm.
Just a "Vick-flick" of 50+ air yards. No big deal. pic.twitter.com/pxGM9FPcgO
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 15, 2022
This 52-yard touchdown pass to Pearsall against Florida State was similarly ridiculous. Here, he had Pearsall on the front-side vertical route, and Douglas on the backside deep crosser. When Richardson saw the Seminoles clog the middle of the field to deal with Douglas, and cornerback Kevin Knowles II struggling to keep up with Pearsall out of motion. this was a confident quarterback making an outstanding deep throw.
This kind of arm strength/talent can be a blessing and a curse — there are things Richardson can do that a lot of quarterbacks simply can’t at any level of football, but at what expense to the nuances of the position?
Where Richardson still needs to improve.
When Richardson throws from a solid base, he’s fine. But there are too many times when he gets cute with his mechanics, and that can be a problem. Here against Vanderbilt in Week 12, he’s got receiver Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman beating cornerback Tyson Russell downfield. Richardson still has a relatively clean pocket when he throws the ball, but because he narrowed his base when he threw the ball, the pass was wildly offline.
And while Richardson has cleaned up the weird downfield reads, there are still plays like this against South Carolina, where I’m not sure what he’s thinking.
Richardson also needs to clean up his sense of route timing — another reason for his relatively low completion rate is that he doesn’t always seem to get when a target is breaking open. He has issues with throwing behind his receivers, and throwing them closed into coverage, that will need to be addressed. This red zone incompletion against Texas A&M is one such example.
What if this is Year 1 of the two-year project?
So, what we have in the case of Anthony Richardson is one NCAA season as a starter, in which he’s displayed massive improvement in a lot of the things that make great quarterbacks great. This speaks to his potential and work ethic. It’s quite clear that Richardson is not satisfied with where he is in the process, or he wouldn’t have shown this much growth already.
Back to the “What does it mean?” question for his NFL team. Patrick Mahomes benefited greatly for sitting most of his rookie season behind Alex Smith. Trey Lance, for the most part, did the same behind Jimmy Garoppolo, through Lance’s future is still unclear due to injury. The Chicago Bears threw Justin Fields into the fire in his rookie season in a broken offense led by Matt Nagy, and it’s s tribute to Fields’ fortitude that it didn’t ruin him forever. The Tennessee Titans selected Malik Willis in the third round of the 2022 draft, and have him on the long-range plan behind Ryan Tannehill.
This could and probably should be Richardson’s path. And by the way, this doesn’t just apply to quarterback prospects of color. Josh Allen’s development wasn’t linear at all: He was a fabulously gifted and wildly inconsistent quarterback at Wyoming, and it took a lot of lumps before he became what he is. Whoever selects Kentucky quarterback Will Levis in the 2023 draft will have to consider similar developmental curves. Levis and Richardson have a similar story in that case, except that Levis is a two-year starter who has not shown the same level of quick progress that Richardson has, and Richardson also has better tools.
And yet, you hear Richardson described as a project, and Levis as a future star. We’ll leave the reasoning for that up to your own speculation.
Another factor to consider is that there is a sea change in the ways in which quarterbacks are valued. It’s less important to throw consistent bangers from the pocket, and more of an advantage to have mobility and second-reaction ability than ever before. Quarterbacks like Richardson have an innate advantage in this particular environment.
Right now, I think that Richardson could have a Justin Fields-level impact on his NFL team, with Josh Allen long-term potential. This of course depends a great deal on the team that drafts him, and the willingness of the coaches on that team to maximize his attributes and mitigate the things that need work. We’ve all seen gifted quarterbacks on the rise get scuttled by bad coaching and horrible fits.
But if you’re looking at Anthony Richardson from a 30,000-foot level, and you’re not diving into the differences between the first and second halves of his 2022 season, you’re doing your own evaluation — and Richardson himself — a disservice.
Anthony Richardson has already proven how much he can grow in a short space of time. The rest is up to him, and the NFL team that takes a shot on him.
