A low-pressure system carrying fast-moving polar air will bring damaging winds and possible blizzard conditions to south-eastern Australia, with possible snow as high as the Queensland border – but locals in that state have not yet dusted off their toboggans.
The low-pressure system brought cold and blustery weather to Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales on Sunday and Monday, with severe weather warnings for all three states.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued a warning of damaging winds in coastal and elevated parts of Tasmania, Victoria, NSW and the ACT, with wind gusts of up to 100km/h recorded in Tasmania on Monday, and blizzard conditions also forecast for alpine areas of NSW and Victoria on Tuesday.
The Higgins Storm Chasing chief forecaster, Thomas Hinterdorfer, said snowfall in Guyra and Ben Lomond in northern NSW was “absolutely locked in over the next few days”.
The snow forecast in Queensland’s Granite Belt was less certain, conditional on the cloud cover and overnight temperatures.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) had not released any official snow forecasts for southern Queensland, but the meteorologist Livio Regano said there was still a “small chance” of snowfall in the mountainous Granite Belt border region – particularly on Tuesday morning.
“It would be nice if it happened, but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it,” he said.
Modelling suggested conditions on Tuesday morning would allow snowfall to settle on mountaintops at least 1,200 metres in altitude. “But high points on the Granite Belt are around 900 metres so it probably won’t make it,” Regano said. However, he added that snowfall in Queensland was “always marginal” and challenging to predict.
Regano said “diehard” weather watchers would likely be headed for the rural locality of Eukey, altitude 966 metres. “You’ll probably find some meteorologists hiding out there tonight,” he said.
Another prime viewing spot was The Summit, at 923 metres elevation, but an employee at the local general store was less convinced. “It’s not concrete, it’s just rumours, so my guess is no – they always talk about it but it never happens,” she told Guardian Australia.
Regano said any snow that is recorded is likely to be in the form of snow flurries, which have recently fallen across parts of New South Wales, rather than powder that sits on the ground.
Snow flurries were last recorded in Queensland in 2019, but it had been nine years since snowmen stood on the Granite Belt after up to 8cm of snow blanketed Stanthorpe, the region’s largest town, in 2015.
The Stanthorpe shop owner Debbie-Ann Wilmot said the possibility of snow had brought a few visitors from Brisbane to the town. “Instead of ‘how’s it going?’, it’s been ‘where’s the best place to see snow?’” she said.
“We hear this every year to no avail … but I’m optimistic this time.”
On a property outside town, Maria Caterer has been waking at 2am each morning to catch a glimpse of any snowfalls. She recounted the “really odd” sight of the snow in 2015. “I’d never seen snow before, it was quite exciting. The cows didn’t know what to make of it, the dogs too,” she said. “It’s looking unlikely this year, but we are forever hopeful.”
A rare weather event in Antarctica was adding to that hope. The Weatherzone meteorologist James Rout said the Antarctic conditions could cause heightened winter weather on the east coast of Australia in the next four to six weeks.
Rout said a stratospheric warming event was forming over the south pole, with sudden warming set to raise high-altitude temperatures by tens of degrees in a few days. That warm stratospheric air, 30-40km above the Earth’s surface, can cause cooler air lower in the atmosphere to move north.
Although too early to confirm, the event may result in a cold front and strong winds over southern Australia and increased rainfall and snowfall in both the south-west and south-east of the country in mid-August.
But in the longer term, Regano said, the chance of snow in Queensland was shrinking due to human-induced global heating. “Eventually these snow events will be a fond memory of the past,” Regano said.
