NEW ORLEANS — Of course North Carolina faces yet another team against which they’re favored to lose in the NCAA tournament. This time, it’s the final.
The Tar Heels have toppled one higher-seeded team after another during their rise from a February malaise to the brink of the program’s seventh NCAA title.
Kansas entered the tournament ranked No. 3 in the final Associated Press top 25 poll on March 14. UNC was unranked, losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament semifinals.
The Tar Heels didn’t care.
They defeated AP No. 4 Baylor, 93-86 in overtime, in the tournament’s second round. They toppled No. 11 UCLA, 73-66, in the East Regional semifinals. They eliminated No. 9 ranked Duke, 81-77, in Saturday night’s Final Four semifinals.
So what does UNC (29-9) face against yet another top-10 team in Kansas (33-6)? Plenty, but the Tar Heels have proven they can handle the top teams well.
Here’s a look at the matchup
What did Kansas show in the regular season?
Among the nation’s top-ranked teams all season, the Jayhawks suffered an early unsightly loss — a 74-73 setback to Dayton on Nov. 26 in Florida. Visiting Kentucky also battered Kansas, 80-62, on Jan. 29.
But the Jayhawks rolled through the Big 12 schedule, posting a 14-4 record to tie with Baylor for first place. Kansas blasted Baylor, 83-59, in Lawrence, Kansas, on Feb. 5 but lost the rematch to the Bears, 80-70, in Texas on Feb. 26.
Three nights later, TCU upset the visiting Jayhawks, 74-64.
Since then, the Jayhawks have won 10 consecutive games, capturing the Big 12 tournament championship and the NCAA Midwest Region championship to reach the Final Four.
How has Kansas’ NCAA tournament run played out?
The Jayhawks were the Midwest Region’s top seed and played like it throughout.
Playing in Fort Worth, Texas, Kansas hammered 16th-seeded Texas Southern, 83-56, and dispatched No. 9 seed Creighton, 79-72, in the second round.
In the Sweet 16 at Chicago, Kansas toppled No. 4 seed Providence, 66-61, before pulling away in the second half to defeat No. 10 seed Miami, 76-50, in the Midwest Regional final.
On Saturday night in the first national semifinal at the Final Four, Kansas led by as many as 19 points before defeating Villanova, 81-65.
Tar Heels face yet another good offensive team
Just as Duke (1.21 points per possession) was No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy, Kansas comes in at No. 6 in that metric.
The Jayhawks have produced 1.196 points per possession this season, well above the national average of 1.029.
Kansas has made 36.1% of its 3-point shots and 53.8% of its shots inside the arc, making it a 47.8% shooting team overall.
The Jayhawks displayed a terrific inside-outside attack against Villanova, with senior big man David McCormack scoring 25 points and senior guard Ochai Agbaji tallying 21 points by hitting 6 of 7 3-pointers.
As good as those two were Saturday and have been all season, UNC can certainly counter with Leaky Black, the ACC’s top perimeter defender this season, and center Armando Bacot guarding those two.
Also, UNC is exceptional at defensive rebounding. Tar Heels’ opponents have only grabbed offensive rebounds on 21.6% of their missed shots this season, making UNC No. 2 nationally in that metric. The national average is 28.1%.
How can UNC exploit the Kansas defense?
The Jayhawks are No. 17 in the country in defensive efficiency, allowing .92 points per possession. That’s well below the 1.029 national average.
But UNC already beat the teams that were No. 13 (Baylor) and No. 16 (UCLA) in defensive efficiency.
Kansas’ foes have only hit 30.1% of their 3-pointers this season, which could mean Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Brady Manek could be shooting mostly contested 3-pointers on Monday night.
In the East Regional final, Miami hit only 3 of 21 3-pointers (14.3%). In the Sweet 16 round, Providence shot 4 of 23 (17.4%) while losing to the Jayhawks.
Or, perhaps the Tar Heels could find their shooting stroke.
Villanova shot 41.9% on 3-pointers (13 of 31) against Kansas on Saturday night. In the NCAA tournament second round, Creighton hit 12 of 28 3-pointers (42.9%) over the Jayhawks.
As the Tar Heels did against Duke, and as they’ve done all season, they need to feast on offensive rebounds to get second and third shots on each possession.
Led by Bacot, UNC is good at securing offensive rebounds, retaining 31.3% of their missed shots. That’s No. 74 nationally and better than the national average of 28.1%. The Tar Heels grabbed 17 offensive rebounds, that’s 39.5% of their missed shots, in beating Duke on Saturday night.
