Ankara is claiming a breakthrough in efforts to release trapped Ukrainian grain to world markets as global food prices soar. The breakthrough came after Wednesday's four-way talks between Russian, Ukrainian, United Nations, and Turkish officials in Istanbul.
Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar said that Wednesday's talks opened the door to a deal that will release millions of tonnes of trapped Ukrainian grain in a statement.
Agreement this month?
Akar said an agreement could be concluded as early as later this month, saying Turkey would play a pivotal role in the proposed agreement for joint controls for checking shipments in harbors and guaranteeing the safety of Black Sea export routes.
The Turkish defense minister said a coordination center with Ukraine, Russia, and United Nations for exporting grain would also be set up in Turkey. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres cautiously welcomed the breakthrough.
"More technical work will now be needed to materialize today's progress. But the momentum is clear," said Guterres.
Trust is the main stumbling block to months of diplomatic efforts to reach a deal. Kyiv fears if it de mines its ports to allow cargo ships to export grain, Russian forces would take advantage and attack.
"This food corridor would require the Ukrainians to remove mines from seaports. They were put there for a reason to keep Russians from invading their country, "said Aaron Stein of Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
International sanctions
Stein also warned international sanctions on Russia are also an obstacle to any deal. "there is no appetite whatsoever to lift sanctions, and that is the Russian demand, and that is not going to happen," said Stein.
But following Wednesday's talks, Washington announced its sanctions would not target any Russian grain exports that were part of a deal to get grain exported from the Black Sea. Moscow welcomed what it called the "goodwill gesture."
The UN is warning unless tens of millions of grain trapped in Ukrainian ports is not released, world food prices will continue to soar, threatening famines across the globe. Ukraine is the world's leading grain supplier, with Africa especially heavily dependent.
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyir said they're determined to reach a deal, "We are indeed putting a significant effort into resuming the supply of food to the world market. And I am grateful to the United Nations and Turkey for their respective efforts."
The progress at the Istanbul talks has underlined Turkey's position as a critical facilitator in negotiations between the warring parties.
"President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been careful to highlight that Turkey wants to maintain relations with both sides," said Sinan Ulgen of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a research organization in Istanbul.
"So, as a result of this balanced policy, Turkey has been trying to carve out a space for diplomatic influence as a facilitator or potentially as a mediator," added Ulgen.
Ankara's diplomatic success
Ankara's apparent diplomatic success comes at a good time, facing mounting criticism over its refusal to enforce international sanctions on Russia.
In June, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, accused Turkish companies of buying stolen Ukraine grain.
Kyiv was further angered when Turkish authorities released a Russian-flagged ship that Ukraine claimed was carrying stolen grain. However, international media continue to report grain from Russian-occupied Ukraine is being imported by Turkey.
Ankara vehemently denies the accusations, with Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying any charge is taken seriously.
"We are taking all claims seriously and investigating them in a very serious way. And share the outcome with the Ukrainian side all the time," said Cavusoglu.
But to facilitate Russian tourists, which Turkey relies heavily upon, Turkish banks joined Russia's Mir payment system, which Moscow is using to circumvent a ban on international credit cards.
Such moves are adding to broader concerns over Turkey's role in financial sanction busting. Timothy Ash is with Bluebay Asset Management and says Ankara sees a financial opportunity.
"The Turks kind of think, well, we can't afford to join the sanctions regime, and I have heard from the various (Turkish) government officials that they potentially see this as an opportunity to make money, actually," said Ash.
"They argue like the Iran sanctions, brokering sanctions can see Turkey win important foreign exchange earnings. So I think there is nervous about that in the west," he added.
Secondary sanctions
In June, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo visited Ankara to discuss enforcing Russian sanctions. Analysts warn Turkey could be vulnerable to secondary sanctions by Washington.
But Ankara insists enforcing sanctions would jeopardize its mediation efforts between Kyiv and Moscow. Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations, says, for now, Turkey's western allies appear ready to give Ankara the benefit of the doubt.
"There is an acceptance among western allies that Turkey is involved in this balancing act that it's not going to cut off relations with Russia.
That it is going to do this strategic balancing between Russia and the west," said Aydintasbas, "And because Turkey is so geopolitically important at the Black Sea, with the Turkish straits, there is tolerance."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has close ties with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts. Before Wednesday Istanbul talks on Ukrainian grain, Erdogan spoke with Zelenskiy.
While Tuesday (July 19), the Turkish president, is scheduled to meet face to face with Vladimir Putin in Tehran. A meeting that could prove key to finalizing any deal to get Ukrainian grain back onto world markets.
