So… here was the situation.
With 2:38 left in overtime of what was one of the worst NFL games any of us have ever seen, the Denver Broncos had fourth-and-1 at the Indianapolis Colts’ five-yard line. The Broncos were down 12-9, as Colts kicker Chase McLaughlin had booted a 48-yard field goal on Indianapolis’ previous drive.
The Broncos had three choices here — they could kick a field goal to tie and hope the Colts didn’t drive back down the field, they could go for the first down and give themselves another set of downs to figure things out, or they could go for the win.
Actually, there were four options, and Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson went with that one. Option 4 was to throw into coverage, ignore a wide-open target in the end zone, and fail to convert the fourth down. Wilson attempted a pass to receiver Courtland Sutton, Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore broke it up, and that was your ballgame.
GILLY LOCK TO END IT. 🔒#JAXvsIND, 10/16 at 1pm ET pic.twitter.com/N35mogRr7c
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 7, 2022
There were multiple reasons this play was a disaster, and it’s time to get into all of them. Denver’s offense has been a total wreck with Wilson and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett — this was merely the latest example. But this play, as the ultimate dog of a dog game, presented all kinds of illustrative examples as to why neither Hackett nor Wilson seem to know what’s going on here.
Worth a thousand words. 🔒 pic.twitter.com/UT6Ippv7hU
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 7, 2022
We have at least a thousand words on this abomination of strategy and execution, so let’s get into it.
The Broncos have been horrid in the red zone this season.
Richard Sherman, Wilson’s former Seahawks teammate, seemed to experience a bit of PTSD from a certain skinny slant in a certain Super Bowl against the Patriots at the end of the 2014 season. Sherman was working the game for the Amazon Prime telecast, and his preference would have been to run the ball in this red zone situation. Perhaps the Broncos could have signed Marshawn Lynch to make that happen — top back Javonte Williams was out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL and LCL in his right knee he suffered in Week 4, and backup Melvin Gordon has had fumbling issues.
Richard Sherman let it all out in the postgame show:pic.twitter.com/s367JfpNOk
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 7, 2022
But the Broncos shouldn’t have gone with an expansive passing play here. The Broncos absolutely should have played to tie at best. I am all about aggressiveness in late-and-close situations, but this team has not earned anybody’s faith in the red zone this season. They are the NFL’s worst team in the red zone. Per Football Outsiders, Denver came into this game ranked dead last in red zone DVOA, 30th in red zone passing DVOA, dead last in red zone rushing DVOA, and 31st in goal-to-go situations. Against the Colts, Denver had four red zone chances, and failed to convert on all of them. They had one goal-to-go situation, and failed to convert it.
Coming into this game, and even with Williams as one of the NFL’s better tackle-breakers, the Broncos had attempted nine rushes this season from the opposing 10-yard line in. They had scored two touchdowns, but they had also been stuffed three times, and lost two fumbles.
Nothing is automatic when your offense isn’t working. Nothing.
So, while I agree with Sherm’s overall philosophy here, the best possible thing the Broncos could have done was some self-scouting — understanding that they are two packs of ass in the red zone, and to react accordingly. A tie is better than whatever that was.
Wilson was fixated on Courtland Sutton, no matter what.
If you’re going to design a passing play to win a game, you’d better give your quarterback more than one option out there. Defenses know what you’re doing, and who you prefer to target. Including this game, Courtland Sutton was the Broncos’ most-targeted receiver by a wide margin — he has 46 targets to Jerry Jeudy’s 26, running back Javonte Williams’ 22, running back Melvin Gordon’s 13, tight end Eric Saubert’s 13, and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam’s 11.
This has not been a passing game where you have to worry about multiple targets and options. It has a new head coach, a new quarterback, and all kinds of communication issues. Based on the coverage, the Colts knew that Sutton was absolutely the target.
“We wanted to win the game,” head coach Nathaniel Hackett said, when he was asked to explain the thought process of the final play. “We hadn’t moved the ball very well the whole night, and I thought we had a spectacular drive to get all the way down there. It ended up being fourth-and-one, and we got the go to go for it. Thought it was a good decision, wanted to put the ball in Russell’s hand and call a play that we know, and he really likes, and it didn’t work out. It was one of those things — the timeout before was to kind of get a feel for what they were doing and so the run didn’t look as good as we had hoped it would have, and gave it a chance with Russell. That’s all you can ask for in that situation to win the game.”
I find it interesting that Hackett said the Broncos “had the go to go for it.” The Broncos have multiple people on staff to help Hackett with in-game decisions, the most recent of whom is Jerry Rosburg, the longtime coach who was hired in-season to help Hackett with what had been some awful in-game decisions. So, this could mean that Hackett got the go from upstairs, which is common. Hackett then talked with Wilson about what Wilson wanted to do, and had faith in his quarterback. Also common.
Hackett doubled down when asked why the Broncos went for the win instead of the first down.
“We wanted to have a good pass call. We wanted to put it in [Wilson’s] hands to be able to try and win that football game. Whether or not he was going to use his legs or run around, I thought the protection was really good. They played man coverage from what it looked like, and we had a couple people that might have been there, but regardless I’ve got to look at the tape and look at it a little bit closer. I think for Russell , he was trying to make a play, and he’s going to our other best player, our captain in No. 14 [WR Courtland Sutton], and it didn’t happen. Again, we wanted to put it in his hands.”
As for Wilson, here’s what he had to say about it.
“We had a good play call on. Went to Courtland there. Guy [Colts CB Stephon Gilmore] made a good play. I was ready to move around if I needed to. We came up with a big fourth-and-2 earlier the drive before—two drives before so we went for it. We didn’t want to end in a tie. We wanted to win the game—that was our mentality. I think Coach made a good call, and I have to find a way to make a play—whatever it takes. The thing about close games and this and that is it comes down to finding a way. We found a way before and this time we didn’t.”
It may have been a good play call, but Wilson failed in the moment.
The play was doomed, because Wilson didn't see the entire field.
The All-22 of the play shows in even more explicit detail what everybody already knows. Sutton was on Wilson’s back side, and the Colts were playing Cover-1, which means Wilson had man across with a single-high safety. As a quarterback, it’s your responsibility to have an eye on which one of your receivers has the man-beater. Sutton didn’t — he faked an outside release and then checked inside with Gilmore all over him. At no point in this play did Sutton gain credible separation from Gilmore.
Meanwhile, KJ Hamler, the outside receiver to the right, had the man-beater down. Hamler was in a switch release with Jeudy, creating a natural pick, and he was about as wide-open as wide-open can be to the inside. This is what was designed to beat the coverage!
When we say that Wilson was fixated on Sutton no matter what, it’s obvious from the routes run. The man-beater was to the right, and for Wilson to bag it to that side is something you would expect from an undrafted Division II rookie quarterback in his first preseason game.
This would explain Hamler’s response after the fact.
not a happy camper pic.twitter.com/4vqgevuKAw
— alex (@highlghtheaven) October 7, 2022
The Broncos may not recover from this.
That may sound like an exaggeration, but Sherman’s response on Twitter after the game reminded me of what happened to the Seahawks following Super Bowl XLIX.
— Richard Sherman (@RSherman_25) October 7, 2022
The Seahawks never made it back to another Super Bowl. The Legion of Boom started to fall apart. Bad drafts, trades, and free-agency decisions started to take their toll. Most importantly, it was impossible for a lot of players in that locker room to believe in Wilson in the same way. His quirks as a person were acceptable as long as he got it done on the field. Wilson was never one of the guys. He was never an alpha in the ways that Sherman or Kam Chancellor or Marshawn Lynch or Michael Bennett were, and that was okay when Wilson was performing. But when he wasn’t, those quirks became magnified in the eyes of the teammates who had to believe in him.
Especially in that most important moment.
Now, the Broncos have to try and put a Band-Aid on this. They traded multiple picks and players for Wilson, and they then signed him to a five-year, $245 million contract. There are no do-overs here. The dead money on Wilson’s contract doesn’t become manageable until 2025.
“One thing I know about myself is, I’m going to respond,” Wilson concluded. “I don’t know any other way. I always believe in myself. I always believe in this team. I believe in what we can do. I believe in what I can do. When you play this game, the one thing you’re going to know is that you’re going to go through adversity. Adversity is a choice, and I’m always going to choose to understand that adversity is just temporary and you’re going to overcome obstacles and battles. We’re all working together. We’re all still together focused on trying to do whatever it takes. It starts with me, and I’ll make sure that I do that.”
That Wilson always believes in himself is not in doubt. The question is, who’s still in there with him?
