Players of Victor Wembanyama’s magnitude are exceedingly rare. As a second-year pro, he’s already the best defender in the NBA, warping the court like few who have ever played can. To reach the loftiest of ceilings, he’ll need to continue improving on the offensive end.
His offensive application has sparked debate throughout his NBA career. That’s reached a climax early in year two, as Wembanyama seems to be leaning into his perimeter play more than anything else. The results have been strong. He’s scoring 22.7 points per game on 59.1 percent true shooting (1.8 points better than the league average).
To the chagrin of some, the San Antonio Spurs’ 7-foot-4 colossus is launching threes. Wembanyama attempts 9.9 triples per 100 possessions at a 33.9 percent clip, placing his volume in the 92nd percentile league-wide. As a rookie, He shot 6.6 3-pointers per 100 possessions. He’s currently the 24th-highest volume shooter in the entire NBA and first among centers by a country mile.
Conversely, his paint scoring volume has decreased from his rookie year, down from 7.7 rim attempts per 100 possessions to 5.9 this year. That places him in the 77th percentile overall and right near the middle among centers. He’s converting a scorching 76.1 percent of his shots within five feet (91st percentile), leading some to question San Antonio’s offensive deployment of Wembanyama.
It’s obvious he’s virtually unstoppable as a roller and a cutter, amplified by the presence of passers like Chris Paul and Stephon Castle. His catch radius as a lob target is unparalleled and the Spurs use him on the roll as frequently as possible.
But for Wembanyama to reach his ceiling, he’ll need to boost his self-creation as a scorer. He can’t rely on teammates to create all of his interior shots, especially given San Antonio’s current lack of playmaking and spacing talent, even factoring in these offseason additions.
Few would disagree the Spurs should find him in the restricted as much as possible. He’s an unstoppable force at the hoop, able to dunk over almost anyone and contort around defenders when he can’t flush with power. But for his current strengths, I’m not sure more straight post-ups are the right idea.
According to NBA.com, Wembanyama posts up 4.4 times per game, good for just 7.4 percent of his total touches. His 4.4 post touches tie him for fifth-most, but he converts them at a well below-average rate (0.368 points per possession). Of the 28 players who post up at least twice per game, his efficiency ranks second to last, only ahead of Julius Randle.
Due to his high center of gravity and lack of core strength, defenders can push him out of the paint and deny deep post position. Some of this should improve as he matures and develops physically, but this post-up inefficiency isn’t fully his fault.
San Antonio loves to deploy Wembanyama on the perimeter and high post as a hub, where he thrives. The Spurs will sometimes set off-ball screens on the baseline and at the elbow to find him post position, but the screens do not come frequently enough and they wings will set bad screens (or don’t screen at all).
the struggles aren’t all wemby’s fault, the spurs could benefit from setting even more off-ball screens to find wemby positions (and setting better screens when they do!) pic.twitter.com/5IwgnjhslF
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 18, 2024
This trend continues with his elbow touches, where he scores an inefficient 0.429 PPP on 6.5 touches per game. His same core strength limitations hurt him as a face-up driver, as brawny post defenders cut off his drives and force him into difficult midrange jumpers. Improving his midrange jumper would aid his elbow viability since he can shoot over any defender.
victor wembanyama is averaging 6.5 elbow touches (0.429 PPP) per game, the fifth most of any player in the NBA. of the 17 players with at least 3 elbow touches per game, his PPP ranks fifth to last.
these touches enable wemby’s worse habits, would love to see fewer of these pic.twitter.com/T2zXv5lehx
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 18, 2024
Feeding Wembanyama at the elbow brings positive results as a passer. Defenses often double-team him there, and he picks them apart with his height and excellent vision. As San Antonio’s roster hopefully improves around him, he should tally even more assists while passing from the middle of the floor.
His 3-point volume lets him unleash as a driver. He’s converting drives at a more efficient clip (0.7 PPP) than the other play types discussed. He scores on 66.7 percent of his 3.9 drives per game. Of the 21 centers driving twice or more per game, his field goal percentage ranks second in the NBA.
These driving lanes wouldn’t open without his high-volume shooting. And he’s bombing away from deep. Ninety of his 112 triples have come beyond 25 feet, and he’s taken nine beyond 30. Some of these Curry-range threes are ill-advised, but Wembanyama’s gravity extending deep opens gaping driving lanes.
NBA bigs simply can’t match his footspeed on the perimeter. His fluidity, coordination and functional handle are all superpowers. Defenders will bite on his pump fakes and all he needs is a small crease to stride to the rim.
i really don’t mind the high 3pt volume for wemby since it fuels his driving and closeout attacking, which is his best offensive tool at this point IMO.
almost nobody can deal with his fluidity and quickness off of the bounce and you have to play up with how he’s shooting pic.twitter.com/XvT4GK8tBj
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 18, 2024
One could argue the Spurs should feed Wembanyama even more in the post and at the elbow. It’s imperative for him to play through mistakes and learn on the fly, as his development remains the most critical goal. But even at his apex, he may not be a high-volume post scorer. Deepening his back-to-the-basket arsenal, especially as a hook shot artist, could be beneficial. But San Antonio clearly knows how special his driving is and is leaning into that.
The Spurs probably won’t cast Wembanyama as a movement and off-dribble 3-point shooter with this kind of frequency forever. Given his current limitations, he operates best on the perimeter as a driver and screening hub to initiate the Spurs’ motion offense.
We shouldn’t force him to copy the blueprint of any former NBA star. He’s a singular talent with a singular playstyle. That might look different than people expect, even at his peak. As he adds strength and ages, he should naturally become more adept absorbing contact and working at the basket. At some point, the Spurs will likely prioritize his paint touches even further, especially when he eventually plays in the playoffs.
For the moment, I’m mostly content with San Antonio’s deployment of its franchise cornerstone. He’s maintained above-average efficiency while harboring north of 30 percent usage. The Spurs could sprinkle in more post and elbow touches as Wembanyama’s comfort increases. But for now, his perimeter-oriented offense makes sense and shouldn’t inhibit his long-term progression.
