This season has been full of peaks and valleys for the Los Angeles Rams, who have yet to creep above .500 at any point in 2024. They stormed back from a 1-4 start and got to 4-4, but they’ve gone 2-2 since then and currently sit in third place in the NFC West with five weeks to go.
With their underwhelming 6-6 record, the Rams’ clearest path to the playoffs is by winning the division. A wild-card berth isn’t completely out of reach, but being only one game back of the Seahawks in the NFC West, it’s abundantly clear that the Rams may need to win the division to make the postseason.
The good news is they have three divisional games left. The bad news is they have to go through the Buffalo Bills first. The Rams are hosting the 10-2 Bills on Sunday in a game that will have a big impact on their playoff odds.
Here’s a breakdown of the Rams’ postseason chances as they stand right now, according to the New York Times.
- Current odds: 24%
- With a win: 36%
- With a loss: 18%
Based on the New York Times’ projections, a win has a bigger impact on the Rams’ playoff chances than a loss does, which is good for Los Angeles. If they win, their odds improve by 12%, whereas a loss only drops their odds by 6%.
Aside from their own game against the Bills, there are two other games that will have an impact on their playoff odds: Seahawks at Cardinals and Bears at 49ers, both of which are in the late window on Sunday, too.
If the Rams beat the Bills, their odds improve to 36%. They’ll then want the Cardinals to beat the Seahawks and the Bears to beat the 49ers, which will prevent their odds from dropping.
Seahawks at Cardinals
- With Seahawks win: 34%
- With Cardinals win: 36%
Bears at 49ers
- With Bears win: 36%
- With 49ers win: 35%
The rest of the Week 14 slate will have negligible effects on the Rams’ playoff odds, with less than a 1% swing in either direction. But in terms of a rooting guide, the NYT’s playoff predictor says the Rams will benefit from the Lions beating the Packers, the Falcons beating the Vikings and the Raiders beating the Buccaneers.
While the Rams can’t afford to lose their next three games to the Bills, 49ers and Jets, their playoff hopes will mostly come down to Weeks 17 and 18 against the Cardinals and Seahawks. Losses in either of those games – barring the results of Week 14-16 – will drop their playoff chances below 10%.
