New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara recently met with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to discuss the incident in Las Vegas last year which has led to his impending league discipline, which indicates we should receive word on the length of Kamara’s suspension soon. But how many games could he miss?
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport recently shared a couple potential suspension lengths. The Saints don’t have a grueling schedule, but this will definitely have an impact on the new look offense. You can’t have a full view of what the offense looks like until Kamara is present. Here are the first six games:
- Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 2 at Carolina Panthers
- Week 3 at Green Bay Packers
- Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 6 at New England Patriots
- Week 6 at Houston Texans
We’ll break down the best case, worst case, and most likely scenario below:
Best case scenario (2 games)
You’d like to have no suspension at all, but we operate in the framework of reality. This is the floor for Kamara. It’s important to note the Saints visit the Panthers in Week 2. This means no matter what you’re going to miss Alvin Kamara for at least one divisional matchup. The Saints have prepared for this suspension by adding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller via free agency and the draft. This is a relatively short absence, and the duo of Williams and Miller should be able to hold down the fort.
- Week 1: Titans led the league with 3.4 yards per carry allowed, with the fourth-fewest first downs allowed on the ground (93) and the third-fewest rushing touchdowns (9)
- Week 2: Panthers ranked 11th-best in yards per carry (4.3), but they allowed 125 first downs (10th-worst) and the 11th-most rushing touchdowns (17)
Most likely scenario (4 games)
This feels like the likeliest option, if not less. Since Kamara settled his cases, optimism has risen about suspension length. Four games would still hurt as he would miss another divisional game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An interesting storyline to watch in this scenario is the rise of Miller. He’s been impressive in practice. Four games is enough time for the rookie to get his feet under him, potentially show progress and stake claim to continue being an important part of the offense once Kamara returns as well. That would be the most interesting development during Kamara’s absence.
- Week 3: Packers ranked fifth-worst with 5.0 yards per carry allowed, with the seventh-most first downs allowed on the ground (129) and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns (18)
- Week 4: Buccaneers ranked 19th in yards per carry (4.5), but they allowed 103 first downs (10th-fewest) and the 12th-best rushing touchdowns (12)
Worst case scenario (6 games)
This is the worst-case scenario. This sets him up to miss a third of the season and all of the games above. Kamara being out for this duration of time could even cost the Saints a game. New Orleans isn’t scheduled against many offenses to fear so don’t expect shootouts. The beginning of the season is littered with tough defenses. In games like this, a dynamic weapon could make the difference with a play. You still have guys to choose from on the roster, but you’d prefer to be fully loaded for this stretch of time.
- Week 5: Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest yards per carry (4.1) and the second-fewest rushing first downs (90), with only 7 touchdown runs (best in the NFL)
- Week 6: Texans yielded the fourth-most yards per attempt (5.1) and the second-most rushing first downs (150), as well as the second-most touchdown runs (25), but new additions like head coach DeMeco Ryans, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, and defensive end Will Anderson Jr. could help them get right
