The 49ers’ decision to receive the opening kickoff of overtime in the Super Bowl became a major discussion point after San Francisco’s crushing defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the game the team’s goal with receiving was to control the third possession. In the event the teams were tied after one possession each, the 49ers would then be able to win the game with a field goal.
Of course, it never got to that point because San Francisco kicked a field goal and the Chiefs scored a touchdown to win the game. Perhaps things would’ve gone different had the 49ers done what they usually do when they win the coin toss and took the ball second.
However, Walker Harrison, a quantitative analyst for the New York Yankees, crunched the data on the playoff overtime rules and it turns out there’s no surefire right choice.
Harrison’s numbers show no real advantage either way:
This flowchart shows my results from simulating NFL playoff overtime, a hot topic since the Super Bowl.
My numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive, which aligns with research done by @bburkeESPN and @StatsbyLopez .
Details⬇️ pic.twitter.com/G2HEZnKwSD
— Walker Harrison (@WalkWearsCrocs) February 18, 2024
He posted another version with a legend that explains the methodology:
I'm also attaching this version of the chart with a legend, which is slightly less twitter-friendly. The methodology is:
-Receiving team kicks XP on first possession
-Kicking team goes for two down 7
-Defensive scores not shown (happens about 1% of time) pic.twitter.com/Sc0SfUYgwx— Walker Harrison (@WalkWearsCrocs) February 18, 2024
Alas, there are a ton of elements that factor into a coach’s decision. Surely the 49ers’ defense being nearly out of gas by the end of regulation also factored into Shanahan’s decision.
In a results-based business though the decision that led to a loss was the wrong one regardless of what the numbers say. That’s how Shanahan will be judged.
