The first critical question about the criminal investigation into what Cressida Dick described as “the events at Downing Street and Whitehall” is whether the probe will covered any attend by Boris Johnson.
Scotland Yard has declined to say so far but it seems almost certain that the answer will be yes and that at least Mr Johnson’s now notorious birthday party, when he was supposedly “ambushed by cake”, will be under police scrutiny, along with the “bring your own booze” gathering in the No10 garden that he attended with wife Carrie for 25 minutes.
In those circumstances, the next decision for police to take will be whether to treat Mr Johnson as a potential offender, rather than a witness, under the Covid regulations at the time – which on the date of his birthday bash, for example, banned indoor gatherings unless part of a household group or linked household.
That too seems likely and means the Prime Minister would be interviewed under caution and face the prospect of receiving a fixed penalty notice.
That would amount to a potentially politically devastating admission that he committed a criminal offence. Any refusal to accept a fine would mean prosecution and the even worse prospect of conviction.
Numerous defences have already been advanced, including Mr Johnson’s claim that he believed he was attending work event in the Downing Street garden and that those at his birthday celebration were part of his “household bubble”.
But the barrister Adam Wagner, an expert on the Covid laws, has pointed out that the legislation required work events to be “reasonably necessary” to be legal and dismissed as “preposterous” and a “joke” the notion that a household bubble could incorporate the PM’s entire office.
It’s worth pointing out too that in announcing the police investigation, the Dame Cressida warned that there were already grounds to suspect “serious and flagrant” breaches of the Covid laws and the absence of any reasonable defence.
Some fines appear inevitable and with police promising to investigate “without fear or favour” Mr Johnson faces uncomfortable days ahead.
