WASHINGTON — The term “unexplained” doesn’t appear too often in official government documents, unless they are dealing with possible paranormal events, like UFOs. Yet the reference is sprinkled throughout the Congressional Budget Office’s latest budget and economic outlook to describe the recent strength in federal tax receipts that’s blown away prior estimates.
Individual income tax collections for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 are projected to land at their highest level as a share of the U.S. economy since the advent of the income tax in 1913. Overall federal tax revenue this year is expected to hit 19.6 percent of gross domestic product, a figure that’s been topped only three times: twice during World War II and again in 2000, before the dot-com bubble burst.
It’s not entirely unexplained; the CBO attributes much of the revenue growth this year and in the coming years to faster economic growth, higher wages and profits and capital gains realizations from elevated asset prices — and, yes, higher inflation.
