The New Orleans Saints extended their losing streak to three with Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and early season growing pains are now points of concern. While interceptions can be a bit nuanced, New Orleans leads the league with six fumbles. In the first two games, the defense managed to hang tough and force opponents to punt. Against Tampa Bay, turnovers were the deciding factor. It’s hard not to feel the same about a 3-pt loss in which both recovered fumbles resulted in field goals for the Vikings. Worse, it’s starting not to feel unacceptable.
Then there’s the issue of penalties that only Denver has incurred more of. Sunday saw a fair share of debatable flags, five of which resulted in first downs for Minnesota. But they also lead the league in third down flags and defensive holding on passing penalties. For comparison, 22 teams drew more flags last season than the Saints. The team feels undisciplined, and when the margin for error is razor-thin, penalties can’t be the deciding factor. It does a disservice to the bright spots – if you’re still able to see the forest for the trees.
The offense had a discernible pulse, and their 14 points by the end of the third quarter were the most scored all season. They had their highest third down conversion rate and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. Marquez Callaway, Adam Trautman, and Juwan Johnson each had three receptions after previously little to no involvement. Barring his fumble, Andy Dalton otherwise had a sense of command on offense. It didn’t feel like a bunch of moving parts that were all strangers; drives had rhythm like we haven’t seen this season.
To me, it showed more than anything that Jameis Winston has not been healthy, and his current limitations are greater than Dalton’s floor at this point. In Winston’s current state, Dalton should remain under center next week against Seattle. But the mystery ultimately still doesn’t feel solved on that side of the ball. On defense, they seemingly had no answer for Justin Jefferson. Let’s dive into what went wrong defensively:
I’d be remiss not to mention the near-unattainable standard the Saints defense has been held to through four games. There’s not much they could’ve done to win one of the three losses, and we wouldn’t even have offensive comebacks to discuss if that unit didn’t repeatedly put the team in a position to win. Only five teams in the league have a lower third down conversion rate and have allowed fewer first downs than New Orleans.
Marcus Maye’s absence has been apparent. It’s led to reshuffling pieces: Justin Evans hasn’t played more than half the snaps since Tampa Bay, while P.J. Williams played in all defensive snaps against Carolina and 75% against Minnesota. Tyrann Mathieu seems to be stretched thin. Coverage was more balanced this last week, but New Orleans swung heavily back to employing single-high coverage since Maye went out. It’s likely a natural course correction with the current personnel and their strengths. Which made it feel odd that the previous sharp drop in the employment of Cover-2 and Cover-4 was leaned on more heavily, with no real change in personnel.
Unfortunately, the Vikings feasted on both coverages, but especially Cover-4. It’s a coverage vulnerable in the underneath zones, with just three players covering the intermediate areas of the field. While you can play it in press or off coverage – where cornerbacks give a wider cushion before the snap – the Saints had previously opted to play it in the former. When the team was in off coverage, Minnesota took advantage. Both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson had five catches on five targets when the cornerbacks left cushion. Four of those receptions for Jefferson were in Cover-4.
What also stuck out was that most of these receptions in off coverage were on in-breaking routes, particularly drags that took advantage of the three underneath defenders by forcing them to stretch thin laterally. Oddly, after struggling against Cover-1 all season, Minnesota again exploited coverage by allowing Jefferson to beat the corners in a foot race. But the glaring weakness appears to be those in-breaking routes that force defenders to sort through traffic fast. It’s a concept Tampa Bay found a blueprint in with their crossing routes that found a lot of success in the slot. Carolina seemed to follow suit, and while Minnesota beat it in a different way, it seems painfully clear that this is a sweet spot for intermediate gains. It wouldn’t matter as much with an offense that consistently puts up points. It’s not a fair ask to play perfect, but the way the defense lost this matchup was plain weird.
The man coverage issue can likely be chalked up to Paulson Adebo gaining his full speed back, and Lattimore simply having a hard day at the office with an incredibly quick opponent in Jefferson. Justin Evans’ presence in the slot was missed. Bradley Roby has been tasked with a ton of positions and responsibilities that change by the game, but it feels like he’s a jack of all trades, master of none with how much shuffling he’s done. I would’ve been curious to see Evans handle Thielen a bit in the slot. P.J. Williams as a single-high safety just doesn’t pack the same punch as a Maye-Mathieu tandem.
How that unit responds will be as equally interesting as what likely is Dalton’s second attempt at leading New Orleans to a victory. They have too much star power back there to be exploited by opponent game-planning, which seems to be apparent through three losses. It’s not an insurmountable hole, and 9 wins could easily make the playoffs this season. The team is running out of chances to not only accomplish a winning record but to find an identity that keeps it grounded. One hopefully free of self-inflicted errors that just seem foreign in New Orleans.
