The New Orleans Saints have plenty of self-inflicted wounds that contribute to their 2-5 start, and the magnitude of injuries can’t be ignored. The dispiriting losses are piling up, and it’s hard to know what the team would be if they had even half their missing starters. Decimating injuries are an unfortunate, unavoidable part of football. Replacing a longtime franchise quarterback, however, awards more control – should a team decide to take it.
It was almost unfathomable to imagine life after Drew Brees, and history warned that leaving that decision in the hands of the quarterback is not without lasting consequences. Injuries became insurmountable last season, but the Saints somehow remained in postseason contention until the final hour. They appeared to have broken the mold. We’re now seeing how much of that had to do with Sean Payton – and how irreplaceable a tandem like Brees and Payton truly is.
It’s a notion that seems obvious, but there was valid reason to assume a sense of consistency following both their departures. At quarterback, the Saints managed a carousel of four last season and pulled off a winning record. They were missing top players in Michael Thomas and Wil Lutz – who weren’t included in their NFL record for fielding the most starters in a season. The ripple effects of the pandemic on the salary cap led to the departure of key players: Trey Hendrickson, Sheldon Rankins, Malcolm Brown, Janoris Jenkins, Emmanuel Sanders.
The re-signing of Jameis Winston seemingly solved the question mark under center, and Dennis Allen made sense to lead the new team era with continuity. As of Week 8, Winston appears to be benched, not due to injury. That’s a bit more alarming when you consider how hard the team pushed to sign Deshaun Watson despite the consequences off-field. Frankly, it doesn’t feel like they settled the position heading into this season. Nor did there seem to be any contingency plan for life after Drew Brees.
The consensus among media members at training camp and subsequent win predictions were clearly wrong. Perhaps injury should’ve been factored more into the equation. The trade of C.J. Gardner-Johnson feels hasty in context of losing Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins in one fell swoop. That move signaled a sense of confidence that at this point feels misguided. And it’s mainly due to ignoring the historical pitfalls of replacing a longtime franchise quarterback.
Early in the 2020 season, I researched and wrote a three-part series on the end of quarterback eras and the search for a successor. Inspired by Bill Walsh’s famous quote of replacing a player a year too early rather than too late, I looked at teams who faced that predicament in the past. Brett Favre was pushed out by Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with a new team after the Colts drafted Andrew Luck, and Walsh himself traded for Steve Young when he saw the start of Joe Montana’s decline. These teams flourished. In contrast, ironically in the case of Peyton Manning, the Denver Broncos were stuck in purgatory after John Elway retired on his own terms. The Steelers erroneously passed on Dan Marino in the 1983 NFL draft – Terry Bradshaw’s abrupt retirement hampered the team until they drafted Ben Roethlisberger nearly 20 years later. And the only quarterbacks worth mentioning in Buffalo are Jim Kelly and Josh Allen.
The historical evidence was loudly in favor of Walsh’s sentiment. It’s not exactly that simple either. The teams that pushed out their franchise quarterback early all had qualified replacements on the roster – often with time to learn and develop. Finding a quarterback is easier said than done without a longtime signal caller. But the teams who declined to act early all had ample notice of their quarterback’s impending departures. John Elway had nearly retired the season prior. Denver drafted Brian Griese in the third round the following season and had 37-yr old veteran Bubby Brister on their roster. Perhaps had they not immediately benched Brister amongst preseason struggles and thrown Griese to the wolves, Griese may have succeeded with some time learning under the interim replacement.
In fair context, there weren’t many strong draft classes in the 1990s, though Kurt Warner was available as an undrafted rookie in 1994. The Steelers have no comparable excuse; Bradshaw’s unforeseen injury should have been preempted by drafting Dan Marino. They may have thought they had a few years left under Bradshaw, but enough to forgo a surprisingly available heir apparent? The case in Buffalo offered a different lesson. The Packers and 49ers were incredibly lucky that their first pick at future quarterback was a star. Often, the first intended successor is the wrong guy. The Bills learned that the hard way – mainly due to alerting Kelly that his new role was developing his replacement. That’s not to say Favre and Montana were naïve, but their teams didn’t outright push them out the door and thrust their new quarterback in with no mentoring time at all.
When analyzing the fundamental problem, I arrived at the unavoidable conclusion that most teams in this position resultantly rarely have the necessary draft slot to pick a premium replacement. That’s confounded by going all-in for the last years of an aging star – drafting instead to win a Super Bowl and pushing all the chips in free agency to cap limits. New Orleans, in a way, chose to incur these consequences in their final ride with Drew Brees. That’s understandable when they were a Minneapolis Miracle and a demoralizing No-Call away from one last Super Bowl berth. It’s why the departures of players like Hendrickson and Sanders in free agency were easier to swallow.
That’s not to say the Saints never tried to replace Brees before he retired. There’s the infamous 2017 draft where they were one pick away from Patrick Mahomes. It’s perhaps their biggest mistake that they didn’t foresee Kansas City coming and trading up to secure their successor. When it’s quarterback, you do what it takes to get your guy. The team may not have liked Lamar Jackson, but they traded up to No. 14 the next year for Marcus Davenport – Josh Allen had made it out of the Top 5. We’ve seen multiple teams take this decision out of the hands of destiny in recent seasons like San Francisco going all-in for Trey Lance.
Bill Belichick may have pushed Tom Brady out as a result, but he was right to draft Jimmy Garoppolo when he did. The Los Angeles Chargers gifted New Orleans Drew Brees when they drafted Philip Rivers – and now have decades-long continuity under center after doing it again with Justin Herbert. The Saints tried to jump the Patriots for Mac Jones last season and declined to trade the farm. That’s multiple opportunities for a successor out of the draft that they’ve squandered.
It wouldn’t be the first time a free agent quarterback has worked out in New Orleans. And perhaps that’s the biggest blind spot of all. Drew Brees was the exception, not the rule, in acquiring a free agent to lead a franchise. What we’ve seen happen in recent seasons is “rent a quarterback” for teams one signal caller away from a championship – the Rams and the Buccaneers. But as of now, that success in both instances appears fleeting. It worked in 2010 in Philadelphia with Michael Vick – they’ve since drafted two starting quarterbacks in Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts. Like Tom Brady and Matt Stafford, Peyton Manning won Denver a Super Bowl. Their answer was Drew Lock and a failing second experiment in Russell Wilson – and cap consequences to come for seasons.
The Colts are beginning to learn the hard way, along with the Saints, that Matt Ryan cannot be the answer three seasons after Andrew Luck retired. The difference is Sam Ehlinger. Pittsburgh rode out the final years of Roethlisberger’s career and promptly took the chance to draft Kenny Pickett. New Orleans had years of foresight that Brees’ career was nearing its end – enough to consider drafting Mahomes well ahead of his retirement. Since 2015, the Saints have drafted two quarterbacks: Tommy Stevens and Ian Book. They plainly tried to put a bandaid on the situation with Jameis Winston. A quarterback who had to win a competition last training camp and who they tried replacing just this offseason. A quarterback no longer first on the depth chart in favor of Andy Dalton.
As a result, the Saints enter the midpoint of the season with no answer at quarterback long-term, and no signal of confidence for free agents to stick around past this year. Terron Armstead may have stayed under different circumstances. Those same conditions may see similar departures follow this year – unless the team faces the music. And they should’ve seen it coming before a potentially franchise-altering draft trade. If they were confident in Winston, the decision to send Philadelphia their 2023 first-round pick is easier to reconcile. Surrounding your intended replacement to Brees with a starting left tackle, and blue-chip wide receiver aids his ability to succeed.
New Orleans could easily end up with a top-5 draft pick that belongs to the Eagles. The abrupt pulling of Winston as the starter makes that move even worse. It’s near-guaranteed that Sean Payton will coach elsewhere next season and the Saints will recoup a first-round pick as a result. It likely won’t be as positioned to make the same choice as their original pick. But the team is at a point of impasse. There’s no ability to hit rewind on the Winston experiment in New Orleans. No progress happens without drafting a quarterback and potentially hiring a new offensive coordinator to cultivate their next signal-caller.
When they receive that draft compensation from Payton’s impending trade, they need to push it towards one goal: a draft slot that awards them the chance at a class including C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker. The hard choice will come at a loss at all other draft freedom, and it may include a player. But until they see the only true pathway out, the Saints are stuck in quarterback purgatory indefinitely.
