An interesting no-holds-barred multi-cornered contest is on the cards in Telangana as the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the 2023 elections to Legislative Assemblies in the State in a single phase on Monday.
The stakes are really high for the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) (earlier TRS), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. While the BRS is banking on its welfare and developmental schemes to perform a hat trick, the BJP intends to ride on the anti-incumbency and family rule mired in corruption. And, the Congress is pinning its hopes on the party’s spectacular performance in neighbouring Karnataka. It is determined to repeat the same magic in Telangana with its six guarantees.
Head start for BRS
In a perfect head start, BRS supremo and Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao stumped the Opposition by announcing candidates for 115 constituencies in August this year even as the rival BJP and the Congress did not even begin the process.
It may be mentioned here that the ECI had announced the schedule for Telangana Assembly elections-2018 on 23 October of 2018. Elections were held on December 7 and results announced on 11 December, 2018. Mr. Rao had taken a calculated risk in 2018 by going for early elections in September that year when his government still had nine months to go before end of the term.
Cong. Grand Alliance
The 2018 elections saw the BRS and BJP going alone while the Congress forged a Grand Alliance (Maha Kutami) by joining hands with is arch rival Telugu Desam Party (TDP), taking on board Telangana Jana Samiti of Prof. Kodandaram and the CPI. The MIM chose to tread its own path by contesting the seats in its stronghold of Old City of Hyderabad.
In the 119 member House, the BRS won a landslide with 88 seats garnering 46.87% vote share followed by the Congress 19, the MIM seven, the TDP two, the BJP one, the All-India Forward Bloc one and Independent one.
The Grand Alliance fared miserably as the Congress tie-up with the TDP undid its efforts. The BRS raked up the statehood sentiment and projected TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu as anti-Telangana and succeeded in its campaign.
The Congress’s attempt to woo voters on the ground that they had created Telangana did not cut much ice with the electorate. The BJP ended up as a fringe party with a mere one seat and lost deposits elsewhere. The MIM, however, wrested seven of the eight seats it contested. The BRS had a virtual sway over the electorate bagging majority seats in eight of the 10 erstwhile districts in Telangana, the exception being Khammam where the Congress and the TDP shared the honours.
In the 2023 poll, the BRS faces a stiff challenge from the Congress and the BJP. By announcing its list of candidates before anyone did, the ruling party gained advantage as it was able to handle dissidence and anger among the leaders who failed to get ticket. The reaction to the denial of ticket to a few sitting MLAs has been not much. However, change of candidates in few constituencies in the last minute cannot be ruled out.
Congress banks on six guarantees
The Congress got a shot in the arm by holding the first meeting of the newly constituted Congress Working Committee here and following it up with a massive public meeting last month. Party leader Sonia Gandhi announced the six guarantees (Abhayahastham) on welfare schemes. The promises to implement the guarantees in the first 100 days of coming to power has given the party a boost.
The party is still in the process of finalising candidates and it is going to be a Herculean task to balance caste, religion and other equations. There is a strong resentment brewing among the Backward Classes in the party, that they might get short shrift in the election in the name of surveys. There is still no word on the possible alliances with the Left parties or on the fate of YSR Telangana Party headed by Y.S. Sharmila.
BJP looks to central leadership
The BJP is banking heavily on the Central leadership to turn the tide in its favour. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sounded the poll bugle from Mahabubnagar and followed it up with another meeting in Nizamabad where he lashed out at the BRS leadership and went to the extent of saying that Mr. Rao made a bid to join the NDA, which was rejected. The BJP still has to go a long way to make an impact in majority seats as it lacks strong village level committees to improve its fortunes. Unless the party sheds the BRS-BJP nexus tag, it cannot make an impact in the election barring a few pockets.
The smaller parties such as the Left – CPI and CPI (M), — the Bahujan Samaj Party and others will be in fray to test their luck too. The 2023 Assembly election is going to rewrite history as it will decide whether the BRS regains power for the third time, or concedes ground to the BJP or the Congress.
