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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
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Brendan Hughes

Analysis: Census 2021 shows 'Protestant state for a Protestant people' is gone

There is no doubt that Northern Ireland having more people from a Catholic background than Protestant for the first time in its history is a significant moment.

A century ago when the partition of the island created Northern Ireland, by design it was seen as a "Protestant state for a Protestant people".

But that dominance has been in decline over the years, and is now well and truly gone.

Read more: NI Census results: Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time

It would be wrong to jump to conclusions over what a religious headcount means for any future border poll on a united Ireland.

Northern Ireland for a long time has been much more complex than "Catholic" meaning "nationalist" or "Protestant" equaling "unionist".

While most people are from a Catholic background, we also live in an increasingly secular society with a fifth of the population now identifying as having no religion.

Upbringing does not determine how people live their lives, or vote at the ballot box.

Sinn Fein overtook the DUP to become the largest party at Stormont for the first time in May's election, but unionism is still the largest designation in the Assembly with 37 MLAs.

Amid the growth of the unaligned Alliance Party, the number of MLAs who designate as nationalist dropped from the 39 elected in 2017 to 35 this year.

Support for nationalist parties has not changed significantly in the almost quarter-century since the Good Friday Agreement.

It is hard to interpret the 63.5% increase in the past decade in Irish passport holders, as Brexit has created the paradox of more unionists seeking Irish passports out of pragmatism.

Overall the figures indicate Northern Ireland is increasingly a society of several minorities. Some 42.8% of people considered themselves at least partly British, 33.3% at least partly Irish and 31.5% as Northern Irish either solely or with other identities.

However, looking beneath the surface suggests some real problems for unionism.

There was an eight-point drop compared to 2011 in people with a British-only identity (32%), a four-point rise in Irish-only (29%) and Northern Irish-only fell by one point (20%).

For unionism, they are potentially catastrophic figures. If those trends continue, Irish identity will surpass British within a decade.

The shift suggests political unionism is failing in its attempts at stewardship of the Union.

Brexit, the flags protests, opposing abortion reform and blocking LGBT rights have all served to push many thousands of people away from identifying as British.

The challenge for unionism is to make Northern Ireland a place where everyone feels comfortable remaining as part of the UK, regardless of their identity.

The challenge for nationalism remains to make the case to a growing middle-ground who identify as Northern Irish that a united Ireland would better serve their needs.

But the picture is also much broader. Northern Ireland has an ageing population, with the number aged 65 or more increasing by nearly 25%. It is also becoming more diverse, with around 7% of residents born outside of the UK and Ireland.

The detailed make-up of our population will have implications in planning for healthcare, schools and jobs.

Beyond politics, the challenge for all is to make the best of these statistics to provide for everyone in Northern Ireland, whatever the future may hold.

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