During the year ending last August, according to preliminary estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the number of drug-related deaths in the United States was about 22 percent lower than the total for the previous year. That unprecedented drop is more than twice as big as the already remarkable decrease indicated by earlier estimates last fall, and it should give pause to anyone who thinks interdiction of the drug supply is the key to reducing the annual death toll.
The CDC predicts that drug overdose deaths during the 12 months ending in August 2024, once fully counted, will total around 89,740, down from nearly 115,000 during the prior 12 months. That is by far the largest annual drop ever recorded, and it represents a striking departure from recent trends. Between 2002 and 2022, the CDC reports, the annual number of drug-related deaths almost quintupled, from fewer than 24,000 to nearly 108,000. During that period, the death toll rose every year except for 2018, when it fell by 4 percent.
Deaths rose by a whopping 30 percent in 2020, rose again in 2021 and 2022, then fell by 3 percent in 2023. Although the CDC heralded that small decrease as a hopeful sign, it pales by comparison with the huge expected drop in 2024. While there are several possible explanations for that unanticipated development, one thing is clear: Drug warriors, whose policies contributed to the seemingly inexorable rise in deaths, cannot take credit for it.
