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Fortune
Fortune
Angelica Ang

AMRO holds Asia's 2026 growth forecast steady at 4%, but said it would have been higher if not for the Iran war

(Credit: KAZUHIRO NOGI VIA GETTY IMAGES)

Asia had a strong 2025, despite the doom and gloom surrounding Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The ASEAN+3 region—which consists of Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and South Korea—defied protectionist headwinds to grow 4.3% last year, beating initial projections from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released right after the tariff shock.

Now the Iran war poses a new threat to Asia. The closed Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains and choked energy supplies, particularly for Asia, which buys more than 80% of the oil and gas that passes through the narrow waterway.

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