WASHINGTON — GOP Rep. Billy Long was walking through a Capitol hallway recently when he encountered Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, who predicted aloud that the congressman would probably be a candidate for the newly open U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.
“You’d be better than a lot of them in there,” Schumer told Long, before adding, “What do you think about [Eric] Greitens?”
Long didn’t reply, but the brief exchange told him that Schumer was intrigued with the potential Senate candidacy of the former Missouri governor, who was forced from office in 2018 amid an affair and allegations of sexual misconduct.
“I kept walking. I mean, what am I going to say? It made me wonder if they want Greitens in the race,” Long said.
For many Republicans, the reemergence of Greitens — who announced his senatorial bid Monday — has dredged up memories of problematic primaries’ past, when the party blew opportunities to retake the Senate early in Barack Obama’s presidency because a handful of flawed candidates lost winnable general elections.
Now with Democrats once again in full control of Washington, the outside force that can drive Republican primaries is no longer the tea party, it’s former President Donald Trump. But in the very early stages of the 2022 midterm election cycle, GOP operatives are hopeful that the incentive to take back control of the evenly divided Senate above all else will prevent the internecine warfare that hobbled the party a decade ago.
The belief is that even if Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump aren’t on speaking terms, the impetus to avoid embarrassment entering what is historically a favorable political environment for the minority party will ultimately prove stronger than their boiling grudge.
“Ultimately what ended the tea party was losing,” said Josh Holmes, a top political adviser to McConnell, “so I think that everyone involved is much more focused on producing good candidates that have capability of winning a general election.”
“At this point, things appear to be a touch more thoughtful than they were in 2010-2012,” he added.
Republicans have a considerably easier path ahead of them to take back the Senate next year than they did at the outset of Obama’s first term: Democrats held 59 seats in 2009 compared with 50 now. While a loose coalition of tea party groups helped shape GOP battles during that era, Trump — an often unpredictable figure who has vowed to seek retribution against Republicans he feels are not loyal enough to him — possesses a unique ability to single-handedly swing a primary contest.
So far, though, the potential for agreement is emerging in several key Senate races, even if Trump and McConnell aren’t directly coordinating. In Missouri, Greitens is not seen as a favorite to earn either man’s support, and remains a foe of the state’s junior senator, Josh Hawley.
“Still reviewing the field,” said Trump adviser Jason Miller. “Too early to make any definitive statements.”
Republican strategists think that any of the potential GOP candidates could handily hold the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Roy Blunt, with the possible exception of Greitens.
In Nevada, differing GOP factions appear to be rallying around former Attorney General Adam Laxalt to challenge Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. Laxalt, a prolific fundraiser, is close with many in Trump’s inner circle and recently met with Sens. Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Mike Lee and Rick Scott at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where he received encouragement to run. McConnell is also said to favor Laxalt’s candidacy, according to a GOP aide.
The Club for Growth provided a poll to McClatchy showing Laxalt with a 19-point lead in a hypothetical primary match-up against Dean Heller, the former senator who clashed with Trump.
In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu would be the clear front-runner to take on Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Although Trump adviser Corey Lewandowski has floated challenging Sununu for the governorship, his move into the Senate contest could extinguish a messy fight.
“I think he would effectively clear the primary field and would not face a competitive challenge,” said Jim Merrill, a longtime GOP consultant in New Hampshire. “His overwhelming reelection win last fall showed his unique ability to bring together all GOP factions as one formidable team.”
Ohio is currently hosting the most engaged primary between former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and former state party chairwoman Jane Timken, both of whom are championing themselves as the most ardent defender of the former president. Trump initially leaned toward backing Timken, but hasn’t indicated a public preference in the race, preferring to watch it develop.
Even if Trump and McConnell’s rocky relationship continues as these and other primaries develop, Republican strategists argue that the former president has an incentive to get behind candidates who can win in a general election as he seeks to establish himself as the undisputed leader of the party ahead of a possible 2024 comeback.
“Trump may be acting in his own interest, but he doesn’t want to back losers,” said Brian Walsh, a veteran of GOP congressional campaigns. “He doesn’t want to support people who would embarrass him. He’s associating his brand with them.”
Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee doesn’t plan to engage in open primaries, according to chairman Rick Scott of Florida. He dismissed the notion of a major divide within the GOP, arguing that the party is united in opposing President Joe Biden’s agenda.
“I have a relationship with Mitch McConnell, I have a relationship with Donald Trump,” said Scott, who met with Trump this month. “I’m going to do everything I can to get all of them to help me win elections.”
The last Democratic president’s first midterm was largely a disaster, aside from a slate of chaotic Republican primaries that helped prevent Senate control from flipping. The GOP won a majority in the U.S. House and netted five Senate seats in the 2010 midterm elections, but extreme candidates like Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Ken Buck in Colorado blunted the party’s gains.
Two years later, with the GOP within four seats of a Senate majority, anti-establishment forces and thorny primaries cost them wins in Missouri and Indiana.
“Who you nominate matters. It’s less of an issue of, how did you vote on this bill, or are you too conservative,” said Doug Heye, who was the communications director for the Republican National Committee in 2010. “Are you someone who goes out there and proactively scares voters away from you who otherwise might have supported you?”
Today, the fiscally focused tea party has been supplanted by a grassroots movement largely devoted to Trump, who is already doling out support to Republicans who aren’t even official candidates, like former NFL star Herschel Walker in Georgia. But so far this cycle, Trump’s endorsements have mostly gone to Republican incumbents in safe seats.
Two states where Republicans are keeping an eye out for trouble are Georgia — where Trump is at war with top GOP officials over the 2020 results and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is up for reelection — and Alaska, where the former president has promised to campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who voted to convict Trump in February’s impeachment trial.
Some Republicans found it telling that shortly after a day of golfing with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, former Sen. David Perdue announced he would not be a candidate in 2022. Murkowski, who has not definitively said she is seeking reelection but is expected to, is also facing blowback from the Alaska Republican Party, which plans to recruit another candidate to run for her seat.
As Holmes cautioned, the relative comity in primaries “can all revert back in a second.”
With a 50-50 split in the Senate, every seat will be the deciding one, leaving no room for error on either side. In the crucial open seat races of Pennsylvania and North Carolina, it’s Democrats who currently have the more crowded primary fields.
Former Rep. Ryan Costello, a relatively centrist Republican weighing the Pennsylvania race, said the size of the field and the style of his potential campaign could matter more than Trump’s backing.
“If somebody’s going to take a swing at me — because I’m seen as more moderate — that doesn’t mean I don’t swing back.” Costello said. “Some Republican voters just want to see if you can take a punch and throw a punch.”
