According to Forbes, the increase in the size of tax refunds will be most noticeable for middle-income households earning between $50,000 and $150,000.
The research noted that, in general, tax refunds are expected to be about $1,000 higher than in recent years. Below, we will explore how recent changes affect Americans’ tax refunds in 2026 and what this could mean for you.
Also here are steps to take if you are expecting a lower refund this year.
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These Groups Will Receive Higher Refunds
The article mentioned that even though the size of the refund depends on the individual’s tax return, the following groups should see a noticeable increase:
- Middle-income households, especially families earning between $50,000 and $150,000.
- Families with children who will benefit from the higher dependent credits.
- Workers who earn tips or overtime.
- Older taxpayers who will qualify for additional tax deductions in 2026.
The article noted that the average increase in refunds is expected to be about $1,000, bringing the total to over $4,000. With 63% of taxpayers receiving a refund in 2025 for a total of $328.878 billion, you could be in for a larger cash injection this year.
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What You Need to Know
While it’s exciting to find out that you may receive a larger tax refund this year, there are a few things you’ll want to know.
You May Have Overpaid in Taxes
Hector Castaneda, certified public accountant (CPA) and principal at Castaneda CPA & Associates, pointed out that the Forbes article is missing a crucial point. He said just because someone receives a larger refund doesn’t mean that they received a larger “benefit” because it just means they overpaid more during the year. He emphasized that the taxpayer could have paid more in taxes than they were supposed to, which isn’t always a positive.
You Can Double Dip
“What’s changed is that people can now, in a lot of cases, basically double dip,” Castaneda said. “You’ve got the standard deduction, but then you can still layer on certain deductions that used to only matter if you itemized.”
If you add in interest on certain vehicle loans and deductions tied to overtime and tip income, the taxable income can drop for middle-class Americans.
The Refund Will Depend on How Much Tax You Paid
Castaneda warned that the refund will depend on how much taxes were withheld during the year. If someone didn’t pay enough during the year, they could still owe money. He agreed that middle-income households, families with kids, tipped workers and even some older taxpayers will likely see lower taxable income.
Not Everyone Will See Bigger Tax Refunds
Roxanne Hendrix, CPA and JustAnswer tax expert, acknowledged that while many middle and upper-middle-class taxpayers will see higher refunds, the new tax law benefits are heavily skewed towards higher-income households.
“Some lower-income households may not see an increase or could even face higher costs, such as from the end of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for Marketplace health insurance,” she added.
As always, it’s recommended that you work with a trusted financial advisor to see how the new changes impact your situation as you prepare your taxes in 2026.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Americans Making This Salary Are Most Likely To See Bigger Tax Refunds This Year
