The White House of 2036 will have a mammoth task on its hands: It will need to rustle up more than $2 trillion a year to pay the interest on its national debt burden, approximately 5% of the nation’s entire economy.
According to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government will continue to run a sizable and growing deficit over the next decade. In 2026, the shortfall will stand at about $1.8 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Come 2036, that will have ballooned to $3.1 trillion, or roughly 7% of the American economy.
Projections of increased borrowing year after year—regardless of whichever party is in the White House—means the U.S. will also increase the burden of interest payments needed to service its debt. At the moment, America’s national debt stands at $38.59 trillion, with Treasury data showing the government has paid out $427 billion in interest this fiscal year alone.
While the Treasury has grown used to servicing its debt to the tune of more than a trillion dollars annually for the past few years, that figure will double to $2.14 trillion by 2036, nearly double the yearly budget for spending on defense. According to an analysis released by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in December, $1 trillion per year in annual interest payments will be normal from here on out.
Breaking down the balance sheet over the next 10 years, the CBO estimated that the American economy will generate healthy revenues over the next decade. In 2026, it will rake in approximately $5.6 trillion, $5.9 trillion in 2027, and comfortably more than $8.3 trillion by 2036. Aiding the balance sheet’s bottom line into the future will be President Trump’s tariff regime, knocking $3 trillion off deficits, although the CBO highlighted these tariffs are inflationary, a claim the Trump White House disputes.
The tariffs in practice are also turning into, in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s phrase, a “shrinking ice cube,” as Trump’s continuing diminishment of their size as he strikes new trade deals had knocked $800 billion off his budgeted deficit reduction as of November, per the CBO. Since then, Trump slashed the tariff rates for India, announcing the outlines of a deal shortly after India and the European Union announced a comprehensive pact nearly 20 years in the making.
The biggest revenue drivers for the government over the next decade will be individual income taxes and payroll taxes, bringing in $4.2 trillion and $2.66 trillion come 2036, respectively.
