The notion that America is pivoting to great power conflict—global rivalry with another major (and likely nuclear) power in economic, diplomatic, and maybe even military venues to dominate the international order—has become a bipartisan truism. President Joe Biden's National Security Strategy followed former President Donald Trump's fixation on China in naming "Out-Competing China and Constraining Russia" as the first of Washington's global priorities. The strategy relegated terrorism to a lesser subsection, and indeed 2022 is the first year in two decades without an active U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan, Iraq, or both. After months dominated by the war in Ukraine and worries over Taiwan, it feels like the pivot is complete.
Yet that tidy narrative of America turning to a new chapter isn't exactly true. Yes, the big wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are over, at least for the foreseeable future. And yes, we have in important ways left the post-9/11 era behind.
