Despite U.S. President Joe Biden’s long history as a supporter of liberal internationalism, Washington’s allies are deeply scarred by the last four years. Today, former President Donald Trump remains the second most likely person to be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, 2025. (Biden, presuming he runs for reelection, is seen as the most likely.) For U.S. allies thinking about reinvesting not only resources, but also trust in their relationship with the United States, the prospect of a second Trump administration is reason for pause. They might understandably ask: “Why should we invest anew in the United States when you might give us Trump again in four years?”
That’s why many of the United States’ friends, as they watched Trump’s second impeachment proceedings unfold, hoped the U.S. Senate would bar him from holding federal office forever. Even as the specter of right-wing nationalist populism remains, having clarity that Trump himself would not return to run for president in 2024 would have given U.S. allies a measure of confidence that they could work with the Biden administration to renew relationships without worrying that their work might later be torn asunder.
