THERE can be few constituencies that have so visibly suffered an attack of buyer’s remorse as Stirling did a few years ago.
Despite being a pro-European area that recorded a significantly bigger Remain vote in 2016 than even the Scotland-wide average, it elected the pro-Brexit Tory Stephen Kerr as the local MP the following year.
His margin of victory was only 148 votes. Many Remainers, particularly among the large student population at Stirling University, felt that they had sleepwalked into that outcome, and when a second chance cropped up in 2019, they resolved to show whatever discipline was required to prevent a repeat.
The SNP made a declaration of intent to pitch for the Remain vote by selecting as their candidate Alyn Smith, who had been a member of the European Parliament for 15 years, and had famously received rapturous applause from his fellow MEPs after asking them to “leave a light on” so Scotland can “find its way home” to the EU.
During the campaign, Smith was unusually blunt in practically making a demand for tactical votes, telling audiences at hustings that they had to vote for him even if their views aligned more closely with the policies of smaller parties, because he was the only candidate who could oust the Tories locally and stand against Brexit. That forthrightness paid handsome dividends, because by some measures the SNP’s result in Stirling proved to be their best anywhere in Scotland at the 2019 election.
The SNP have made some efforts during this year’s campaign to revive the spirit of 2019 and bring the issue of the EU back to the fore, most obviously with Stephen Flynn directly confronting Nigel Farage in the TV debates on the damage Brexit has done to people’s livelihoods.
Nevertheless, Europe is undoubtedly not quite as high a priority for voters as it was five years ago, and there must be a question mark over what will happen to Smith’s tactical coalition of support from last time if the Remainer discipline breaks down to an extent.
Some of his votes almost certainly came from natural Labour supporters, judging from the unusually big 14-point drop in the local Labour vote in 2019. That could theoretically translate into a swing back to Labour this time.
And because Stirling was previously Labour-held by substantial majorities between 1997 and 2015, there has been some chatter that Labour could even mount a serious challenge to the SNP today. But that stretches credulity somewhat given that they start with just 8% of the vote in the notional 2019 results, which take into account boundary changes that bring in Auchterarder and Gleneagles from John Nicolson’s old seat of Ochil and South Perthshire.
With the Tories able to use the 2019 result to plausibly present themselves as being in a two-horse race with the SNP, it’s possible that some Labour supporters may stick with a tactical vote for Smith.
It must be remembered that Stirling is not a particularly favourable area for independence support – it recorded a 60% No vote in the 2014 referendum. But paradoxically Smith is still one of the SNP hopefuls with the highest probability chance of being re-elected tonight.
