Matteo Jorgenson has named Remco Evenepoel and the Belgian team the role of a standout favourite and strongest team for the upcoming Olympic Men’s Road Race, in which Jorgenson will himself be forming part of a three-rider US squad.
Speaking at length on the Cyclingmolepodcast about the 272km race on Saturday, Jorgenson predicted a wide-open, chaotic event, given the relatively small peloton, the lack of race radios, and the small numbers of riders in each team.
However, the American argued that Evenepoel and Belgium were likely in pole position for gold, given both the depth of talent in a four-man squad, and Evenepoel’s past form in long, gruelling one-day events. Jorgenson also tipped Jasper Stuyven as a dark horse for Belgium, pointing out that the former Milan-San Remo winner had been in great shape throughout the Tour, but had largely “flown under the radar.”
As for his own chances, Jorgenson said he was in flying form. But he warned both about the unpredictability of fatigue levels after doing the Tour de France, where he claimed eighth overall, and also that he had never tried to turn things round so fast straight after a three-week stage race as he would be doing come Saturday in Paris.
“In my mind, I see also Remco as the favourite of the race, with the team they [Belgium] have they can gamble a bit and I see a solo rider winning this,” Jorgenson told Cyclingmole.
“In his position, he has the luxury of being able to attack with no hesitation or anything because he has the guys who will be sitting on anybody who tries to go across. That’s who I see as the favourite.”
Recalling how Evenepoel had moved away from distance so effectively to win the Australian Road World Championships in 2022, Jorgenson said “I see Belgium as the strongest team.”
Quite apart from a high-profile Classics rider like Wout van Aert and a powerhouse like Tiesj Benoot, Jorgenson also pointed out that “Most people wouldn’t have picked up how well Jasper Stuyven was going in the Tour de France, too. It’s almost like if they [Belgium] don’t win [on Saturday] it’s embarrassing.”
Jorgenson predicted that in such a long race, with around 3,000 metres of vertical climbing, small teams and just a 90-rider peloton not allowing favourites to stay out of the wind until the crunch moments, fatigue would be a major factor.
One consequence of unpredictable tiredness levels was it was uncertain if the major teams would try to keep a lid on the early break, as they would do in the World Championships.
“ I haven’t heard any talking between the [major] teams. I had [Christophe] Laporte and Tiesj and Wout on the team bus [at the Tour de France with trade squad Visma-Lease A Bike] every day and they never discussed putting a guy to ride," he said.
“The race could start from really far out, as far as from halfway through, and from there we see an attrition fest and probably a solo winner. But that’s pure speculation.”
Jorgenson himself reflected on riding his first ever Olympic Games, and how important it could be, saying “ It’s sweet, it was a thing I never thought as a kid I’d be able to do. It’s a really special opportunity.”
“I know how much importance the US puts on the Olympics, how big of a deal it is, so it’s not just another race. I’m going in with the same mindsight as I would do the Tour de France.”
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