Britain and senior European allies are preparing a strategy for the Ukraine war lasting at least another two years - and factoring in a diminished role by the United States if Donald Trump returns to the White House, senior defence sources have revealed.
Britain has already trained 25,000 Ukrainian troops over the past year, and intends to train the same number over the coming year.
It had been suggested that some of the troops would be trained in Ukraine itself by British forces, following a visit to Kyiv by the new defence secretary Grant Shapps – but this has been ruled out by the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Plans are being considered for the UK to create a major medical rehabilitation centre in the west of Ukraine, with Russia warned in a note not to attack the centre which is covered by Red Cross international convention.
Ukraine’s summer offensive, launched in May, is expected to wind down in a few weeks as the weather deteriorates.
It has achieved only limited objectives round Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia and an enclave north of Tokmak. British analysts are doubtful that Tokmak can be taken before the heavy rains and mud set in.
In prospect is a long and difficult ground war in which guerrilla, commando and resistance tactics will count as much as heavy tanks and artillery.
The cost from this summer’s fighting has been horrifically high. Russia is now calculated to have lost 300,000 fighters, killed, wounded or missing.
With up to 400,000 deployed in and around Ukraine, Moscow is contemplating another partial mobilisation – both for the forces and defence industries.
“We think about 30 per cent of the total economy is now devoted to the war,” a senior defence source explained. “They are having to sell oil at discount and they have lost most of the gas market in Europe.”
Ukraine is under strain, too, with high casualties leading to compulsory military service call-ups for some categories. At the same time allies like the UK, France, Germany and the US – known as the Quartet, and likely to be joined by Italy soon – are insisting on reform of the forces, industry, finance and governance.
Mr Shapps wants the UK to continue support for Ukraine in training forces and ensuring that agricultural produce can be shipped from the Black Sea ports.
The Royal Navy is involved in a number of training initiatives for commando and naval operations. This has contributed to perhaps the biggest success of the summer offensive - the restriction and reduction of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, while having no surface fleet of their own.
Britain has also been asked by Nato’s senior command to take a lead role in defusing the rising tensions in Kosovo between the Serb separatists and the Kosovar government.
The Nato strategic reserve is currently led by the Princess of Wales Royal Regiment, which has now been made fully operational.
The unit is to be joined by an extra 200 troops, and a container ship with several months’ worth of stores is on its way.
While Nato’s key allies, especially those on the front line in Eastern Europe, are planning for the prospect of a long war in and around Ukraine, possibly lasting most of the decade, much of the decision making is caught in the cycles of national politics.
“Strategic decision making on this delicate and increasingly volatile situation is being driven in all capitals by more pressing domestic political agendas,” a senior adviser warns.”
