An interactive sea change map shows a worst-case 2030 scenario with Leith Harbour, Portobello beach and most of Edinburgh’s existing coastline estimated to be underwater in the next eight years.
Portobello’s beloved boardwalk, the function and history of Leith’s harbour, and the beauty and diversity of Edinburgh and East Lothian’s coastline could be lost as sea levels related to melting ice caps and global warming continue to rise.
The USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in April that the global average sea level has risen eight to nine inches since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high at 3.8 inches about 1993 levels.
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The sea level rise and coastal flood map from Climate Central shows, in red, areas that will potentially and probably be underwater around the world without further intervention.
A fairly solid red line extends around the coast of Edinburgh and East Lothian as well as across the Firth of Forth bay in Queensferry. The loss of land mass to the rising sea levels is unprecedented.
“Areas lower than the selected water level and with an unobstructed path to the ocean are shaded red,” the data site said. “Our approach makes it easy to map any scenario quickly and reflects threats from permanent future sea-level rise well.”
The site goes on to say that it does not simulate or evaluate the risks and impacts of storms, erosion or inland flooding.
According to the visual data on the map, Ocean Terminal Shopping Centre could soon be flooded, along with the new housing areas lining the docks. One of Scotland’s most popular tourist attractions, the Royal Yacht Britannia, may also fall below sea level.
Some of Leith’s oldest and most beloved pubs are also at risk of disappearing forever, including Port O’ Leith and Teuchter’s Landing, both steeped in local history.
The quaint shopping areas of the Shore may also fall prey to the tides, along with many of the locally-owned cafes and restaurants that currently line the Water of Leith.
Edinburgh Dog and Cat’s Home, many car dealerships, and areas of Portobello Beach also fall into the red areas on the map, highlighting how far the risk of flooding extends down the coastline.
The predictions on Climate Central are not a guarantee, but are intended to offer guidance on where to put flood protections and take other precautions.
The maps were put together as part of Climate Central’s Program on Sea Level Rise, an initiative that seeks to provide clear and accurate data to both citizens and decision-makers.
It’s run and maintained by an independent group of climate scientists and expert communicators. You can see the results and explore the maps for yourself here.
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