It’s been somewhat of a sleepy season for the defending champion Bucks. Their 3.6 net rating is the worst mark of a Milwaukee team since 2018. Injuries have kept the team’s best players from sharing the floor together, with only one (one!) Bucks lineup having logged more than 60 minutes together. (The NBA-best Suns have 10 such lineups.) And even Giannis Antetokounmpo seems perfectly happy perfecting his dad jokes as opposed to campaigning for his third MVP (though he’s arguably having the best season of his career). And yet, with only a handful of games left in the regular season, with all the question marks everywhere else in the East, the Bucks are starting to look more and more like the heavy favorite to return to the Finals.
First and foremost, Milwaukee is still an absolute force when its big three shares the floor. Lineups with Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton have a 10.4 net rating. And while the Bucks have slipped overall defensively this year, they’re still stingy when their best three guys are on the court. The Giannis-Jrue-Kris trio has a 107.5 defensive rating, a better mark than the fifth-ranked Heat. Milwaukee is 33–9 when those three play together, a 64-win pace.
As far as Milwaukee’s defensive slippage goes, the return of Brook Lopez should help them in certain matchups. Lopez is often a lightning rod during the playoffs when his drop coverage can feel like a dice roll. Yet he’s still extremely effective at forcing many scorers out of the paint and into tough midrange shots, a generally worthwhile strategy against most players not named Kevin Durant. He’s also an effective one-on-one defender against the likes of Joel Embiid or Bam Adebayo. And when Lopez is on the floor, Giannis is more free to roam and cause havoc off the ball. After missing most of the season with a back injury, Lopez has played in the Bucks’ last seven games, including a 17-point outing against the Sixers on Tuesday. Milwaukee is 6–2 overall with Lopez in the lineup.
And on the wings, the Bucks have made up for the loss of P.J. Tucker by adding shooting and, well, Wes Matthews. Pat Connaughton is another Buck who has missed a chunk of time due to injury. In fact, we still haven’t seen a Jrue-Khris-Giannis-Brook-Pat lineup so far this season. Connaughton has picked up where he left off from the NBA Finals, feasting on open threes and providing switchiness defensively. He is shooting 40.1% on 5.5 catch-and-shoot threes a night, making defenses pay every time they collapse on Giannis. Joining him is offseason pickup Grayson Allen, who is hitting 39.9% of his catch-and-shoots from the beyond the arc (on 4.7 attempts a game).
Matthews, who was on the team in 2020 before spending a year with the Lakers, doesn’t offer the same girth, physicality or offensive rebounding Tucker did during the championship run, but he’s still a bulldog defender who can get after physical scorers. Matthews does have better mobility, and he’s really effective at applying pressure on the ball anywhere on the court. The Jrue-Wes-Khris-Giannis-Brook lineup has only played 17 minutes together entering Thursday’s tilt with the Nets, though I’d expect to see a healthy dose of it come playoff time when Milwaukee needs a stop.
At full strength, the Bucks have an enticing combination of high-end talent, shooting, and defense. We also haven’t mentioned dependable vets like Serge Ibaka, Bobby Portis, and George Hill, who can hold their own in a playoff series. (Portis has been essential this year filling in for Lopez at center.) When you look around the East, Boston is dealing with the Rob Williams injury, the Heat’s offense is stuck in mud, Philly’s depth is lacking, and the Nets still aren’t a lock to make the playoffs. (And if they do, will Ben Simmons ever suit up?)
If there’s a question mark for the Bucks, it’s a familiar one: Do they have a small-ball lineup? For what it’s worth, in the Finals last year, only one Milwaukee lineup that played over 10 minutes didn’t feature Lopez or Portis. The same was true for the conference finals, and in the seven-game series against the Nets, Lopez was on the floor for all but one plus-10 minute lineup. Matthews and Connaughton should work in theory next to Giannis, Jrue, and Khris when the time comes, with Hill and Allen also providing options for Mike Budenholzer. (Giannis has played 34% of his minutes at center so far this season compared to 12% last year. The Bucks have a 7.9 net rating in those stints.)
Ultimately, Milwaukee may not be the juggernaut it was in previous seasons. Still, in an East field filled with question marks, the Bucks seem to have the most answers. And with the key players from their championship run finally getting healthy toward the end of the season, Milwaukee may be waking up at the perfect time.
