The Jacksonville Jaguars suffered one of their worst losses in recent memory in their 47-10 defeat at Buffalo on Monday night, falling to 0-3 and in a tough spot heading into another tough matchup in Houston.
The Jaguars are a mess, with injuries continuing to pile up and the coaching staff still looking for the team’s identity three weeks into the season. It has been far from the ideal start for this franchise in a season where, per owner Shad Khan, “winning now is the expectation.”
Sunday presents a Houston opponent with a young, talented roster led by quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans will not present an easy task but there is a way the Jaguars can either keep the game close or win outright.
Jaguars Wire reviewed the All-22 to present a couple of ways for Jacksonville to secure a victory in Houston.
Continue making WR Christian Kirk the passing offense’s focal point
Kirk started with a negative competition percentage over expected (CPOE) over the first two weeks of the season before his breakout game in Buffalo. Despite the 37-point loss, the team’s No. 1 receiver was finally utilized as one.
Kirk finished the night with eight catches on 10 targets for 79 yards, +12.1% CPOE, +3.7 receiving expected points added (EPA) and an average target separation of 3.2 yards, according to Next Gen Stats.
I would really like to see Christian Kirk utilized more in the #Jaguars offense. He’s their best WR.
vs. BUF:
• +12.1% CPOE
• +3.7 Rec EPA
• 3.2 avg. separation
• 8 catches
• 10 targets
• 79 yards pic.twitter.com/LencMhiIW5— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) September 26, 2024
Kirk is a quality route runner. He understands how to manipulate defenders with subtle movements and head fakes while attacking their leverage. His ability to create separation is why his average target separation is usually high.
The third-year Jaguar is specifically a slot receiver but that is not a flaw in his skill set. Kirk can terrorize second-level defenders with his short-area quickness and run-after-catch toolbox. This is why he was effective against Buffalo and should be a go-to target in Jacksonville’s offense going forward.
Kirk’s lack of usage early in the season likely hurt the Jaguars. The offense can be effective with Kirk as its top playmaker and target holder.
However, there is one thing that the Jaguars’ offense must do to stand a chance against the Texans…
Commit to the run and open up play-action
One of the most frustrating things about Jacksoville’s offense is its lack of identity. This is solely on the coaching staff for not putting its players in areas to succeed.
The Jaguars must start committing to the run as they have proven successful when they do.
Based on Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars are No. 7 in the NFL in rushing yards over expected, No. 3 in RYOE per attempt and No. 1 in rushing yards after contact per attempt. Running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and a healthy Tank Bigsby are more than capable of sharing the load and the former can handle 20 or more touches per game if needed.
Jacksonville can run the football, and committing to it would open up the play-action passing game and generate more explosive plays.
Working on an article for JagsWire…while Jacksonville has been bad, they have a way to be good. Run the ball and hammer teams with consistent play-action.
It’s proven to be successful. Per PFF, QBs vs. HOU are 17/30 for 280 and 3 TDs off PA.
Make em happy, Doug, imo. pic.twitter.com/hSzRO9x9ZD
— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) September 26, 2024
Play-action is used to draw the linebackers to the line of scrimmage to mimic the run while leaving chunks of the field with open green grass, especially the high-hole area of the field. Teams can use vertical plane routes, crossers and underneath drags to create explosive plays. Kirk and rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. are prime targets for these concepts.
At the same time, they can also be creative. Teams can run slip screens with the running back out of the backfield (a failed attempt by the Jaguars can be seen in the first of four clips above), run vertical passing concepts and so much more.
Sometimes, offenses will run play-action concepts out of 11 personnel, 12 personnel, 13 personnel and 22 personnel. Jacksonville has the talent required to operate from each of these looks, specifically 13 personnel when Evan Engram is available as one of three tight ends.
Jaguars fans may already see that an offensive identity is possible to achieve. It helps when the team has the second-deepest route depth of any team in the league through three weeks, showing the makings of an explosive vertical offense marinated off play-action.
It begs the question, why are head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor not leaning into it?
Perhaps they will this week as play-action is the way to beat Houston. Opposing quarterbacks are 17-of-30 for 280 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions on play-action throws against the Texans, according to Pro Football Focus.
Minnesota proved the approach successful by stressing Houston defensively in their win last weekend, with quarterback Sam Darnold going 8-of-12 for 109 yards and one touchdown on play-action. Trevor Lawrence could do the same thing.
The Jaguars have the toolbox to fix their issues in the short term and beat the Texans with a good old-fashioned run-heavy, play-action attack. It is up to the head coach and offensive coordinator to pick the right tools.
