The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 5 as the only winless team in the NFL following their 24-20 defeat at Houston last Sunday.
But not all hope is lost in Jacksonville as the Jaguars head into a potentially favorable matchup against Indianapolis.
Jacksonville has not played functional, sound football this year, although we saw the Jaguars’ offensive identity begin to emerge in their loss to the Texans.
This offense can balance the run with a dose of play-action and can take advantage of favorable explosive mismatches. If the Jaguars want to avoid sinking to 0-5 this weekend, their offensive game plan from last week gives them the best chance to win.
Sunday presents a Colts team without star running back Jonathan Taylor, likely without starting quarterback Anthony Richardson and with an underperforming defense that could lend the Jaguars their first win of the season.
Jaguars Wire reviewed the All-22 to present a few ways for Jacksonville to secure a victory against Indianapolis.
Lean on Trevor Lawrence and the rushing attack
The focus of this film review begins with the $275 million man, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, whose play is under scrutiny after a rough start to the season. It seems he is pressing as a passer, staring down targets and playing flat-footed at times. His footwork has certainly become a concern.
Lawrence has also shown to bail from clean pockets and put even more stress on his offense. Despite offering the pre-snap acumen required to operate as an NFL quarterback, he has been inconsistent with his post-snap awareness this season.
Some have called the former No. 1 draft selection “broken,” and while that might be the case right now, his issues are fixable.
Surprisingly enough, it is Lawrence and Jacksonville’s run game that makes the Jaguars go. If he can get into a stretch within games where he can play in rhythm more consistently, this unit will look much improved.
Using play-action more frequently could help with this as the Colts’ defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 21-for-35 with 298 yards, one touchdown and one interception against such calls this year.
Entering Sunday, the Colts rank dead-last in the NFL in yards-per-game allowed, next-to-last in rushing yards and rushes of 10-plus yards allowed, and 25th in passing yards allowed.
Indianapolis’ defense has underperformed relative to its expectations which has cost the Colts games to this point. Jaguars running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby could be in for plenty of touches and big play opportunities, accordingly.
Jacksonville enters the weekend ranked No. 2 in football in rushing yards per play and No. 9 in team rushes of 10-plus yards. This is an advantageous matchup for the Jaguars’ run game to explode onto the scene.
Jaguars’ improved trench play vs. Colts’ underperforming defensive front
One of the bright spots from Sunday’s loss to Houston was the steady improvement of Jacksonville’s offensive line and the trenches overall. In general, the Jaguars’ front five displayed better consistency in pass protection while opening up rushing lanes for Etienne and Bigsby.
Offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Cam Robinson were specifically better, especially in their pass sets moving rushers beyond the arc and giving Lawrence clean pockets. The offensive line also did a better job handling games such as twists and stunts, displaying better communication on this front.
However, when the offense looked to run a play-action with a set-slide protection, the line did not wash defenders out as cleanly as it needed to, allowing pressure on Lawrence almost immediately.
Still, this was the offensive line’s best performance of the season and the unit must build on it, especially against a subpar Colts defense.
Defensively, coordinator Ryan Nielsen knows how to make offenses one-dimensional. That’s what Jacksonville will have to do against Indianapolis’ rushing attack.
With players like linebacker Devin Lloyd and safety Darnell Savage Jr. expected to return from injury, the Jaguars should be able to limit the Colts’ big play opportunities on the ground.
The Jaguars’ consistent defensive line rotation has generated plenty of pressure from the four-man fronts deployed. Rookie interior lineman Maason Smith flashed at times against Houston, including an impressive swim move in the first quarter that got pressure on C.J. Stroud. He could present an intriguing rotational rush threat on passing downs against the Colts.
Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker were fantastic last Sunday with Walker producing a team-high seven pressures on 33 pass rushes and Hines-Allen recording six pressures on 19 rushes. Hines-Allen cleared concussion protocol on Saturday and is set to play.
Target Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr.
The Colts’ passing defense remains an underwhelming unit in 2024 and that should leave Kirk and Thomas licking their chops at the opportunity for a productive weekend. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most yards in downfield passing attempts at 13.3, per Next Gen Stats.
Kirk saw his targets increase from four and three in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively to 10 and 12 against Buffalo and Houston. Kirk is very good at setting up defenders with hesitation moves and fakes along with great short-area quickness.
Furthermore, Kirk is light on his feet and offers smooth acceleration in and out of breaks. He was open on almost every target last week. Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor must utilize him in motions and grant him free releases to create potential mismatches.
Thomas is already the most talented playmaker on the roster four games into his career, as he flashed vertical separation and the necessary quickness to cut routes short and work back to the football.
Next Gen Stats shows Thomas is leading all rookies in deep directions and receiving yards this season while his average route depth is the third-deepest among first-year receivers. His 16.2 yards per catch rank No. 14 among all qualifying NFL pass-catchers.
When Jacksonville attacks Indianapolis through the air Sunday, Trevor Lawrence needs to continue looking Kirk and Thomas’ way.
