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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Blake Schuster

Albert Pujols has until Oct. 5 to reach 700 home runs. Don’t doubt The Machine’s chances.

It’s starting to feel a little bit like 1998 again in St. Louis, isn’t it?

Sure, Aaron Judge is the only one in baseball who is chasing the single-season home run record (which is 73, not 61), but Albert Pujols’ quest to hit 700 home runs for his career feels significantly more urgent.

Judge may have another crack at Barry Bonds’ record. Pujols has made clear he intends to retire after this season whether or not he becomes the fourth player in MLB history to reach 700.

Sportsbooks all over are rushing to price out the odds here. One oddsmaker and market analyst told BetFTW the true percentage for Pujols to hit 700 is 18 percent—odds that translate to about +425.

At the rate he’s currently hitting, the Cardinals legend will surely make that number look comical by the end of the year.

Of course, that’s not how baseball works. Small sample sizes are often more fun in the abstract. The reality is Pujols rakes against lefties and does little damage against anyone else.

Baseball-Reference gives him a 15 percent chance to reach 700 even at his current rate:

But let’s consider a few important factors here.

  1. Those RHP/LHP splits are no joke.
    2022 Stats BA OBP SLG HR
    vs. RHP .184 .285 .316 4
    vs. LHP .398 .436 .807 10
  2. The Cardinals are five games up on the Brewers for first in the NL Central and have the third-easiest schedule remaining. Seven of those upcoming games are in extremely hitter-friendly stadiums like Wrigley Field and Great American Ball Park.
  3. Pujols is going to get every opportunity possible to mash a home run. No matter the score, the inning or if he’s on the bench.

Any time a lefty enters the game, it’s fair to assume Pujols will, too. So if Baseball Reference is assuming that 15 percent chance comes with him playing in just 59 percent of St. Louis’ remaining games, it’s not hard to imagine him surpassing that threshold and increasing his odds.

Here’s the other bit of reality: Watching great players chase historic milestones never, ever gets old. Crazier things have happened in baseball than someone who’s nickname is literally The Machine continuing to produce at a ridiculous rate.

Bet on Pujols hitting No. 700 this year. Bet on it because no one wants to root for this under to hit. Bet on it because many of the prices offered will be so far off the true value it’s impossible to turn down. Bet on it because we all deserve to witness greatness while we can.

But first accept that the odds are stacked against you before you place that bet. Because baseball, if nothing else, is cruelty in action.

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