You had plenty of questions after last week’s free agency-induced mailbag hiatus. As always, I had some answers …
Miami Dolphins
From Michael Shaw (@mikeinwpb7307): Is having 50% or more of your cap in the “dead cap” category a new strategy for tanking? Is Malik Willis set up for failure?
Michael, no. It’s not. The Dolphins are what they are. Over the four draft cycles from 2022 to ’25, Miami had a league-low total of 23 picks. From the ’22 and ’23 classes, they have just two players—De’Von Achane and backup LB Cameron Goode—left. The ’21 class is entirely gone, now that Jaylen Waddle has been traded to the Broncos. And those three draft classes are entering Years 4, 5, and 6, so they are the players who should be in the heart of their careers.
You can’t fix that overnight, and you’re going to have to take on the dead money at some point. So for Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley, it makes all the sense in the world to do it now. Of course, taking on $175 million in dead money is a lot, and seriously hamstrings your ability to compete, but the payoff in doing it all at once will be clean sheets in 2027.
And as for the Malik Willis signing, I think it relates to the challenge that Hafley’s facing, which is to build a program under these circumstances. The idea would be to lay a foundation, and Hafley has to give the players—most of whom have no idea where they’ll be in 2027 or beyond—something to believe in. Going and spending to get a quarterback you like and have been with helps inspire belief. So Willis gives guys a chance to compete individually and as a team, as the coaches and front office confront the realities of their situation.
From Billy Conway (@bonescon): Does Jeremiah Smith to the Dolphins in the 2027 draft seem like a safe bet to you right now?
Billy, I’d say quarterback first. If not a quarterback, and Miami is drafting that high, then sure, they certainly could bring Jeremiah Smith home.
NFL trades
From Anthony Joseph (AJ) Gullotta II (@AJGullotta): Is Jonathan Greenard available? Considering it seems like the Dolphins are getting rid of everyone, including their young #1 WR on a relatively affordable contract, will they listen on De’Von Achane, too?
AJ, Jonathan Greenard is available for the right price—and if you’re willing to give him a raise. I don’t think he’s massively unhappy in Minnesota, nor do I believe that the Vikings are in any sort of rush to offload him. The Vikings would be fine keeping him aboard on his current deal, which has him at $19 million (non-guaranteed) and another $19 million next year. This all started because he wanted a raise. So if you redo his deal and give Minnesota a second-round pick, which I’m not sure anyone will, maybe you can have him.
Los Angeles Chargers
From India Moss (@imoss92): Does Joe know there are a ton of concerns with how we are addressing the roster and how it is making a lot of Charger fans and media divided?
I did not know that, India, but I would tell you that I think Joe Hortiz is one of the better evaluators in football, and I’d trust that certain facets of the team are really going to show it when we get to the season.
You don’t need me to tell you how good his first pick, Jim Harbaugh, tackle Joe Alt, is, already among the very best in the sport at his position, or how much it’ll mean for the team to have Alt and Rashawn Slater back this year. What is less expected, though, is the progress that I think you’re going to see at receiver, behind 2024 second-rounder Ladd McConkey and 2025 second-rounder Tre Harris. Or the steps that the interior of the offensive line, with guards Cole Strange and Trevor Penning and center Tyler Bidasz coming in, is ready to take.
I think slowly and steadily the roster’s been remade in Harbaugh’s image, and that’s what sustained it last year through a slew of injuries. I know every fan base wants to see their team take the big swing and bring in the flashy vet. The Chargers were an 11-win team despite all the attrition. They have their core guys. And with a little internal improvement, some mid-level signings hitting, and improved health, this crew will be a threat in the AFC.
New York Jets
From Major Hawk (@MajorHawk1962): Do you think Woody Johnson directed Aaron Glenn to call plays this season, as alluded to by Wink Martindale?
Major, I’ve heard an element of it was the owner looking at Glenn’s list of candidates and asking why he couldn’t just call the defense himself. The Jets, on Jan. 16, announced they’d conducted interviews with Martindale, Jim Leonhard, Chris Harris, Matheiu Araujo, Emphraim Banda, DeMarcus Covington, Daronte Jones and Jim O’Neil, then hired 36-year-old Brian Duker off a fired Dolphins staff 12 days later.
Maybe Duker winds up being a home-run hire. We’ll see. But the way the Jets got to him wasn’t the best, I’d agree with that, and did before Martindale shed light on their process.
San Francisco 49ers
From Man-X (@ShawnMannix): Should the Niners sign brother Bosa?
Man-X, I don’t see why not. At this point, Joey Bosa is a rotational pass rusher, but still a good one. I thought the Bills struck a nice balance with him last year—he played in 16 games, topped 70% of the defensive snaps in only four of them, and was under 60% of the snaps for another four games. He only had five sacks, but recorded 16 quarterback hits on the year, and was a productive piece of a defensive line group that lacks the 49ers’ depth.
I think he’d be a good fit for Kris Kocurek and Raheem Morris. Here’s hoping it happens.
From Scott Loring (@scottloringkc): Where will Trent Williams play this season?
I still think it’s San Francisco.
International Series
From Bols (@Rbols45): Do you realistically see an NFL team based in another country happening?
Bols, the NFL had a 15-year plan to accomplish that when it established the International Series in 2007, and obviously, it already missed the mark. Why? Logistics, mostly. Air travel hasn’t advanced as much as some anticipated, and other projects, like expanding the regular season and adding midweek games, only made the idea of putting a team in Europe more complicated.
I do think they still have aspirations to do it. But how you’d make it work from a travel standpoint is still a very big question—one idea, in the past, was to have a London team, with a U.S. hub in America to conduct a lot of football business, and solving that requires some things, as I see them, are out of the NFL’s control.
When that bridge is crossed, I do believe another big question will be whether it’s by adding two teams, or perhaps an entire division in Europe. But we’re a ways off from that.
Drew Allar
From C (@taydyl33): Is Drew Allar a second-round steel, or have I lost my marbles?
C, I still remember the first starts of Drew Allar’s career at Penn State—and being mildly nervous that he was the quarterback that was going to take James Franklin’s Nittany Lions to the next level, based on the physical traits he was flashing. Obviously, my Buckeyes didn’t have that much to worry about. But I’m not sure everything that went wrong was on Allar.
Franklin’s final OC hire, Andy Kotelnicki, was never a good fit for the big, strong pocket passer, and Penn State hasn’t had a receiver drafted since Allar became a starter—and probably won’t this year either. Allar, by the way, likely would’ve gone to Ohio State had OSU not held a commitment to Quinn Ewers (who wound up reclassifying, then transferring from Columbus), leading up to his own commitment to Penn State.
How different would this look if he were throwing to Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith the last three years, in Ryan Day’s offense?
It’s a question NFL teams have to ponder when considering whether or not to take a flier on Allar in April. The second round, to me, would be pretty rich. But once you get to the third or fourth round, I’d start to think about it. There are issues with accuracy and feel, yet I can’t shake the feeling that there’s still a lot to work with there.
Pittsburgh Steelers
From Local Hero (@HofSpillane): Will the Steelers draft a QB in rounds 1-3, and who will it be?
Local hero, I know some folks believe it’ll be Ty Simpson at No. 20, but that, to me at least, seems a little too close to what happened in 2022, when Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement led to a bit of a reach on Kenny Pickett. So I don’t think GM Omar Khan is going to force anything, particularly on a quarterback who lacks top-end traits.
Now, if Aaron Rodgers is back, or Kirk Cousins is in, I could see taking a chance on a talented guy such as Allar or Arkansas’s Taylen Green to redshirt and develop for a year.
Chicago Bears
From Taylor Staunton (@Taylor_Signals): Why does the NFL hate Chicago? Did the team dirty on comp picks for Ian Cunningham?
Taylor, I do agree that the Bears should’ve gotten the comp picks for Ian Cunningham becoming the Falcons GM. That job, though Cunningham reports to Matt Ryan, is not some sort of “GM Lite” position. But I can also see the league’s position.
The problem is that if you allow it, you’ll start to get more funny business with titles. So, for instance, let’s say the Bills, who just promoted GM Brandon Beane to president of football operations, took his GM title (he still has it, for the record) and gave it to one of his two assistant GMs, Terrance Gray or Brian Gaine. Then, let’s say a year later, another team wanted to interview Gray or Gaine to run their operation. If you apply the logic that, yes, Cunningham is a GM, it’d have to apply to Gaine or Gray, too, and Buffalo could block them.
It’s a slippery thing, in general. So I get why the league makes teams designate a singular chief football executive. It basically neuters the funny business teams can pull with titles.
From Thomas Clark (@ThomasClark34): With Kap and J Hood, you mentioned the Eagles’ model of ownership spending to avoid cap restrictions as something that a lot of ownership groups consider. Do you think the McCaskey family is at a disadvantage in that realm due to all of their resources being tied to the team?
Thomas, this is an interesting big picture question to consider. The Bears are less than $300,000 under the cap, but there are things to consider in these situations.
Some teams spend cash over cap. Others want balance from year to year. On the one hand, teams that only spend to the cap may have reasons other than saving money. On the other hand, going the other way does require an owner willing to spend. The first reason is the obvious—by spending cash and pushing cap into the future, you’re spending past the cap. The second is less so, and that’s that this usually means more big-ticket items, and more future guarantees going into escrow, via the funding rule.
This is where the owner buzz term “cashflow” comes into play. The Eagles, for example, can only spend and build the way they do because owner Jeffrey Lurie is willing to spend in a way very few others are, which gives his team an inherent edge. And yeah, they’ll eventually have to pay the piper for it, but through the current spending spree, without a reset having come yet, they’ve been to two Super Bowls and won one. Which, I’d say, is worth it.
Washington Commanders
From JedAmosT (@PRHH1974): What’s the Commanders’ plan for WR 2 in 2026?
Jed, I’d keep an eye on Brandon Aiyuk. Obviously, there’s a lot of non-football things to sort through there. But if you’re talking about a team that has the infrastructure to map out a road back for Aiyuk, it’s the Commanders. They have a GM, Adam Peters, who was part of drafting him in San Francisco. They have a head coach, in Dan Quinn, equipped to handle it, and a receiver room, headed by Terry McLaurin, with a healthy environment. And they have his old quarterback from Arizona State, Jayden Daniels, at the trigger.
Then you have McLaurin, Aiyuk, and you keep developing Luke McCaffrey, and maybe dip into a deep draft class at the position (though, with just six picks total, and two in the first four rounds, I sure wouldn’t want to have to rely on that) after that.
New England Patriots
From Snap Judgements (@RISportsNews): What are the Patriots' plans for CB3, behind Gonzo and CD? Two of their three losses last year came when Gonzo was hurt, and CD has only played ONE season fully healthy; last year. They can't count on that luck again.
Just to be clear, Snap, I’m going on the presumption you’re talking about a third outside corner, with Marcus Jones locked in as the nickel. You’re right, for sure, that it’s a position the Patriots would likely look a year ahead at, given that Carlton Davis III is 29 years old and turning 30 on New Year’s Eve. And with 11 picks in this year’s draft, I think it makes sense to grab a developmental prospect at the position at some point.
From Brian Gushue (@BJGNO12): Any chance the Patriots will let grass stay at Gillette Stadium after the World Cup? It’d be a shame to just tear it out after those ⚽ matches, given the millions of $ spent to prepare the field, including a new root system. Grow lights can help sustain grass; it works for the Ravens.🙂
This will be a question for many teams whose players will notice this summer that their owners are bending over backwards to install grass, to adhere to FIFA regulations. It’s happening in Atlanta, Foxborough, Arlington, Houston, Inglewood, East Rutherford, and Seattle—with plans to go right back to the fake stuff for football season.
The reality is that the stadiums have gotten so expensive that 10 football games and a few other events don’t cut it for owners anymore. So they jam a zillion events into the stadiums to maximize profits, and in doing so, make it more expensive to maintain a good grass surface. Rather than spend money to do that, owners lay down turf. There’s really not a whole lot else to it than that—English soccer clubs use the same hybrid surface the Packers do (Green Bay has no owner to pocket the difference), and manage things fine.
And as for the NFL’s “data” on turf actually being just fine, I’d ask why 32 of 32 teams practice on natural grass fields outdoors every chance they get, even when they’re playing on other surfaces on game day.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Albert Breer’s Mailbag: Why the Dolphins Are Taking on $175 Million in Dead Cap.
