The government’s contentious plan to increase the tax on superannuation balances over $3m has been all but abandoned, amid concerns that it could expose Labor to a repeat of the damaging franking-credits campaign that helped cost it the 2019 election.
As the prime minister moves to strip away anything politically damaging before he takes Australia to the polls, the treasurer’s superannuation legislation was left off a list of 36 priority bills sent to senators on Wednesday night ahead of the last scheduled day of parliament for the year.
Guardian Australia understands that although it could yet be added to the bills slated to be rammed through using a guillotine motion on Thursday, as of Wednesday night it did not have the support to pass.
Anthony Albanese is not in favour of it proceeding because of the political risk it poses. Others in government share that view, concerned that although the super proposal would raise much-needed revenue, it risked being a repeat disaster.
The legislation produced by the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, would tax the unrealised capital gains on super balances above $3m. Some of those beyond politics who led the campaign against Labor’s 2019 plan to end the concessions available to shareholder retirees are indicating they are prepared to do the same again.
The government is seeking to ram at least 36 bills through the Senate on its last scheduled sitting day on Thursday, including key legislative measures on migration, electoral reform, privacy and to implement the new Reserve Bank structure and a social media ban for under-16s.
Legislation deemed not politically essential – or actively risky – is being afforded a lower priority or dumped altogether.
The number of bills suddenly on the priority list surprised some on the crossbench, prompting speculation that some may have been included in the knowledge that they would be voted down.
The government has already withdrawn its legislation to tackle online misinformation and disinformation after it could not secure support to pass it and has shelved the idea of gambling reform legislation until after the election.
On Tuesday night, Albanese intervened to kill off negotiations between the government and the Greens over the Nature Positive legislation that would establish a federal environment protection agency to manage compliance with national laws and an information agency to manage environmental data.
But the government’s decision to suspend independent Victorian senator Lidia Thorpe from parliament for the rest of the week as a sanction for her behaviour towards others in the chamber left it short of the numbers required for the guillotine motion which would truncate the usual debate time and bring on rapid-fire votes.
The government needs the support of the Greens plus two independents to secure the motion and proceed with its plan to pass all the bills in one day.
Guardian Australia understands the independent senator David Pocock has offered his support but at a high price, indicating he will vote to guillotine the raft of bills only if Albanese resurrects the Nature Positive legislation – something he is unlikely to agree to do.
As the government’s legislative wishlist was circulated late on Wednesday, crossbenchers were also believed to be considering voting as a bloc to oppose all of it in protest at the chaotic process.
With Coalition agreement, the government aims to pass the social media ban, its migration bills and its electoral reforms, although speculation emerged on Wednesday night that the Coalition may yet reverse its promise and abandon support for the electoral reform bill.
It has secured the support of the Greens and some crossbenchers to pass some of its Future Made in Australia legislation, its bill to regulate “buy now, pay later” credit, and its RBA reforms, among other measures.
Also on the list for guillotining are bills on privacy protection and combatting money laundering and sexual violence, and legislation to reform family law.
Spokespeople for both the prime minister and treasurer declined to comment.
