I wanted to specially note this Digitalist Papers essay by my Hoover colleague, economist (indeed, Grumpy Economist) John Cochrane; I'm somewhat more worried than he is, but I thought his perspective was interesting and worth noting. Here's the Conclusion:
As a concrete example of the kind of thinking I argue against, Daron Acemoglu writes,
We must remember that existing social and economic relations are exceedingly complex. When they are disrupted, all kinds of unforeseen consequences can follow…
We urgently need to pay greater attention to how the next wave of disruptive innovation could affect our social, democratic, and civic institutions. Getting the most out of creative destruction requires a proper balance between pro-innovation public policies and democratic input. If we leave it to tech entrepreneurs to safeguard our institutions, we risk more destruction than we bargained for….
The first paragraph is correct. But the logical implication is the converse—if relations are "complex" and consequences "unforeseen," the machinery of our political and regulatory state is incapable of doing anything about it. The second paragraph epitomizes the fuzzy thinking of passive voice. Who is this "we"? How much more "attention" can AI get than the mass of speculation in which we (this time I mean literally we) are engaged? Who does this "getting"?
Who is to determine "proper balance"? Balancing "pro-innovation public policies and democratic input" is Orwellianly autocratic. Our task was to save democracy, not to "balance" democracy against "public policies." Is not the effect of most "public policy" precisely to slow down innovation in order to preserve the status quo? "We" not "leav[ing] it to tech entrepreneurs" means a radical appropriation of property rights and rule of law.
What's the alternative? Of course AI is not perfectly safe. Of course it will lead to radical changes, most for the better but not all. Of course it will affect society and our political system, in complex, disruptive, and unforeseen ways. How will we adapt? How will we strengthen democracy, if we get around to wanting to strengthen democracy rather than the current project of tearing it apart?
The answer is straightforward: As we always have. Competition. The government must enforce rule of law, not the tyranny of the regulator. Trust democracy, not paternalistic aristocracy—rule by independent, unaccountable, self-styled technocrats, insulated from the democratic political process. Remain a government of rights, not of permissions. Trust and strengthen our institutions, including all of civil society, media, and academia, not just federal regulatory agencies, to detect and remedy problems as they occur. Relax. It's going to be great.
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