BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) is doubling down on its core message for 2026: artificial intelligence isn't just a tech trend, it's becoming the macro story that will define growth, inflation and market leadership for years.
In its new global outlook, the world's largest asset manager argues that the U.S. economy is entering a capital-intensive regime driven by massive AI investment, one that keeps growth resilient even as traditional business-cycle signals cool.
The firm estimates that global AI capex could reach $5 trillion to $8 trillion by 2030, with the U.S. leading the buildout.
"We see a shift in the U.S. from a capital-light, software-driven tech regime to a capital-intensive, investment-led AI regime," the asset manager wrote.
That level of capex, the firm says, is powerful enough to keep economic growth running even as hiring slows and traditional cycle gauges fade.
However, companies are also pulling future spending forward while revenues arrive later, which means more leverage, more rate sensitivity and persistent pricing pressures.
“The AI buildout could be faster and greater than all past technological revolutions,” BlackRock added.
Forget About A 2% Inflation Rate, BlackRock Says
Because both governments and corporations are taking on more debt to finance their spending plans, BlackRock doesn't see a return to the sub-2 percent long-term yields that defined the 2010s.
Instead, it expects structurally higher term premia and a bond market more exposed to shocks. That's why the firm stays underweight long-duration Treasuries.
For retail investors, the message is clear: don't count on a sharp comeback in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), which remains almost 50% below its 2020 all-time high.
The combination of elevated public debt, heavy AI capex and sticky inflation makes duration the part of the portfolio most at risk.
"We do not expect a return to the pre-pandemic low-rate environment. Term premia should stay higher than in the past decade," BlackRock stated.
What This Means For The Stock Market
On the equity side, BlackRock's message is blunt: diversification away from U.S. megacap tech isn't a neutral choice anymore, it's an active bet against the primary engine of global growth.
Because only a handful of forces are driving global growth, BlackRock argues that markets have naturally become more concentrated. The dominance of U.S. megacap tech isn't a fluke — it's a reflection of where the economic power actually lies.
While valuations are historically expensive – when looking at the Shiller CAPE Ratio – BlackRock indicates that bubbles often accompany major technological revolutions, and they tend to run further and longer than people expect before bursting.
So instead of calling the top, the firm focuses on reconciling AI's huge capex demands with its potentially massive revenue potential.
The asset manager remains overweight U.S. equities and the broader AI theme, highlighting that the earnings power tied to the technology still isn't fully priced.
“We remain pro-risk and see the AI theme still the main driver of U.S. equities.”
The ‘Diversification Mirage‘
BlackRock warns that many portfolios that look diversified actually aren't. In a world dominated by a few mega forces — mainly AI — spreading capital across regions or sectors does not guarantee risk reduction.
Because of that, shifting capital away from the U.S. or from AI-linked megacaps—whether into other regions or into equal-weighted indices—is no longer a neutral move.
BlackRock views these decisions as large active bets, ones that have left many portfolios underexposed to this year's dominant source of returns.
The firm also cautions that attempts to mute AI exposure won't offer much protection if the theme stumbles. Any pullback in AI, given its central role in today's market structure, would likely overwhelm whatever diversification investors thought they had achieved by rotating into other assets.
That's an important reminder for investors rotating into strategies designed to sidestep the growing concentration of the Magnificent Seven, including funds like the Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF (NYSE:XMAG) or the Invesco Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:RSP).
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