New projections help crystallize a huge challenge: meeting the surging energy needs of data centers as artificial intelligence joins other forces pushing up U.S. power demand.
Why it matters: The balance of fuels that meet this added thirst — gas, renewables, coal, batteries, nuclear and more — will sway future carbon dioxide emissions.
Driving the news: The Electric Power Research Institute sees these digital hubs draining between 4.6%-9.1% of U.S. electricity in 2030, based on four scenarios.
- Last year it was 4%, the nonprofit's new report states.
- It's very regional too — the state-by-state graphic above averages their four growth cases.
- Today, data centers in 15 states account for 80% of the total.
Stunning stat: "At 2.9 watt-hours per ChatGPT request, AI queries are estimated to require 10x the electricity of traditional Google queries," EPRI finds.
- Emerging AI video, image and audio applications "have no precedent."
What we're watching: Which energy sources are used to meet energy thirst from AI, new manufacturing, EVs and more.
- Tech companies like Google and Microsoft are big players in zero-carbon energy purchase deals.
- But a new TD Cowen report projects "75-100% of incremental U.S. data center load growth in the near to medium-term will be supported by natural gas."
Context: A recent Goldman Sachs analysis sees data centers driving over a third of what they project will be 2.4% compound annual growth rate of U.S. power demand through 2030.
- Goldman projects these hubs using 8% of U.S. electricity by then, and assumes a 60/40 split between gas and renewables in meeting new demand growth for this infrastructure.
State of play: EPRI calls for a multipronged strategy that includes efficiency gains, but they warn that since 2018, these improvements have slowed.
What's next: EPRI's working with the data center industry and utilities to explore sustainable approaches.
- One of the ideas: backup generators powered by "clean fuels" that help move the data center-grid relationship from a passive one to a "shared energy economy."
- That means "grid resources powering data centers and data center backup resources contributing to grid reliability and flexibility."
