WASHINGTON — After President Joe Biden failed to elevate an ally to victory Tuesday in Virginia, a state he won by double digits in 2020, Democrats head into the 2022 elections harboring growing doubts about their ability to defend governor’s offices on tougher political terrain.
The party is not only seeking to defend governor’s mansions next year in key swing states that helped Biden win the White House, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Kansas.
But the prospects for Democrats are looking increasingly grim after Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, even after the president and Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for their fellow Democrat in the final stretch of the race.
“If Virginia’s a state that Biden won by 10 — and it is — and they elect a Republican governor, then in a state that Biden lost by 15, any Democrat’s got to be that much more vulnerable,” said David Kensinger, who served as campaign manager and chief of staff to former Kansas Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly is the only Democratic governor up for re-election in 2022 in a state former President Donald Trump won in the last election. The last time a Kansas Democrat won a gubernatorial race when the party controlled the White House was in 1978.
Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Wisconsin Democratic Gov. Tony Evers are up for re-election in states Biden won narrowly in 2020. In Pennsylvania, which Biden won by a little more than a percentage point, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro will seek to hold onto the governor’s mansion after Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf served two terms.
All four states have Republican-controlled legislatures and are top targets for the GOP this cycle.
Nearly two months ago, Democrats viewed Biden as an electoral asset after he helped California Gov. Gavin Newsom stave off a recall attempt. But Tuesday’s results and Biden’s sinking approval ratings have led to questions about whether the president will be a drag on the party’s gubernatorial candidates in 2022.
“It is incredibly difficult to separate yourself from a president of your own party when their numbers are tanking,” said Stephan Thompson, a Wisconsin-based GOP strategist who managed former Gov. Scott Walker’s 2014 campaign.
In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy narrowly edged out Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in a close race that was not called until Wednesday evening, just a week after Biden flew to the Democratic stronghold for a series of events with Murphy.
Even though Murphy won, the nail-biter result represents a major shift toward the GOP in the state since last year, when Biden won New Jersey by roughly 16 points.
Will Simons, a spokesman for Shapiro, said Tuesday’s results will have no bearing on how Shapiro approaches the 2022 contest in Pennsylvania.
“Our strategy will remain the same. Pennsylvanians deserve a Governor who knows how to tackle real challenges and get things done – that’s what Josh Shapiro has done throughout his career and what he’ll do as Governor,” Simons said in a statement.
The Republican field in Pennsylvania includes multiple candidates who have sought to associate themselves with Trump’s false claims of election fraud. Shapiro, who successfully fought off Trump’s efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results, will continue to embrace Biden.
“We’ll welcome President Biden to his home state of Pennsylvania next year as he campaigns for Democrats across the country,” Simons said.
But Republicans across the country say Youngkin’s victory following a campaign focused on curriculum disputes and other school issues offers a guide on how to flip governor’s offices around the nation.
“Youngkin putting parents first in his messaging I think was just brilliant,” said Thompson, who launched the Freedom Wisconsin PAC to support Republican candidate Rebecca Kleefisch in the Wisconsin governor’s race. “Parents have really woken up to these races and that issue of what’s really going on in the classroom.”
Evers campaign said in a statement Wednesday that the failure of a recall effort against local school board officials in Wisconsin disproves the notion that Youngkin’s strategy will translate to all states.
“The results in Virginia didn’t change what we already know — Wisconsin will be incredibly competitive in 2022 and we aren’t taking anything for granted. But last night we also saw partisan efforts to use students and schools as political pawns soundly rejected,” said Sam Roecker, a spokesman for Evers, who noted Kleefisch’s support for the recall attempt in a Milwaukee suburb.
“We know how much is at stake in 2022, which is why we’re starting earlier and building a campaign that will win,” Roecker said.
Biden had predicted Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey during a news conference in Glasgow Tuesday. But he also tempered expectations by noting the unpredictability of off-year elections and pushed back on the notion that the races hinged on his performance as president.
“I don’t believe and I’ve not seen any evidence that whether or not I am doing well or poorly, whether I’ve got my agenda passed or not, is going to have any real impact on winning or losing,” Biden said before polls closed in the two states. “Even if we had passed my agenda, I wouldn’t claim we won because Biden’s agenda passed.”
Democrats in battleground states, however, say that their chances in 2022 depend on Biden’s ability to get his infrastructure plan and other spending proposals enacted as quickly as possible.
“They need actual ‘bring home the bacon’ projects, and that’s what Laura Kelly needs from Biden,” said Christopher Reeves, a Kansas Democratic consultant and former national committeeman.
“Cut ribbons. Appear in local areas with good news. If she can go to some of these areas with good news, that’s what it takes,” Reeves added, noting a long-gestating highway project in suburban Johnson County could be important for both Kelly and Rep. Sharice Davids, the state’s sole Democrat in Congress.
A Biden adviser agreed that Tuesday’s results underline the urgency for Democrats to the president’s economic plans ahead of the midterm elections.
“I think it’s clear that people are unhappy about inaction and this drives home the point to Democrats that we need to get moving on our agenda,” the adviser said.
Kelly’s campaign initially brushed off the Virginia results, saying in a statement that the governor is “laser-focused” on crafting her budget proposal and agenda for next year’s legislative session. The campaign did not comment on Biden’s role in the upcoming election.
But in a fundraising email Wednesday afternoon, Kelly’s campaign called the Virginia results a “wake-up call” and warned supporters that national Republicans’ momentum after Tuesday “could mean big problems for our race as they turn their full focus on Kansas.”
Kelly will likely face Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, a Republican who has won three statewide elections by double digits, including in 2018 when Kelly won the governorship.
Schmidt signaled Wednesday that he plans to focus on similar themes as Youngkin did in Virginia during his campaign.
“Like Virginians, Kansans want leaders who trust citizens to make decisions for themselves, trust parents with their children’s education and health care, and want to make it easier to raise a family, live in freedom, earn a living, and grow a business,” Schmidt said in a statement. “Glenn Youngkin won because he understood that, and I’m confident Kansans will choose that same sort of effective, commonsense, conservative leadership in 2022.”
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